A Global War?

Date:         Wed, 01 Mar 95 22:48:17 EST

Subject:      2.  A Global War? (fwd)

     (Feel free to download this document for reading and distribution.)

           This article has been widely distributed to the media,

         but the media has failed to raise the points that are made.

                             ***A GLOBAL WAR?***

                                (By J. Adams)


     A.  The Crash

     B.  New Lies For Old

     C.  The Collapse of Communism

     D.  The Zhirinovsky Connection

     E.  The Role of the United Nations

     F.  The Balkan Trap

     G.  The Persian Gulf Deception

     H.  The Korean Diversion

     I.  Russia's "Last Dash to the South"

     J.  False Peace in the Middle East

     K.  Conclusion

           *          *          *          *          *          *

                                A Global War?

                             November 11th, 1994

                        Revised: February 11th, 1995

               "I cannot forecast for you the action of Russia.

             It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."

                             (Winston Churchill)

 "War to the hilt between communism and capitalism is inevitable.  Today, of

 course,  we are not strong enough to attack.  Our time will come in  thirty

 or  forty  years.  To  win,  we  shall  need  the element of surprise.  The

 Western world will need to be put to sleep.  So we shall begin by launching

 the most spectacular peace movement on record.  There shall be electrifying

 overtures and unheard of concessions.  The capitalist countries, stupid and

 decadent,  will rejoice to cooperate to their own  destruction.  They  will

 leap  at another chance to be friends.  As soon as their guard is down,  we

 shall smash them with our clenched fist."

   (Dmitrii Z. Manuilskii, Lenin School of Political Warfare, Moscow, 1931)

     In this article I wish to present rational expectations  regarding  the

 course  of  world  history  during  the  days  and  weeks  to  come.  These

 expectations are formed by using the available, relevant information in the

 context of the most accurate contemporary model of international trends and

 the behavior of global civilization.  More specifically,  the model used is

 that of a "global bipolar disorder" as outlined in another article of mine.

 According to this model,  popular beliefs and expectations, biased by greed

 and fear,  swing between irrational extremes of optimism and pessimism.  At

 the current juncture, an unprecedented reversal in popular mood and thought

 is  likely to occur.  In other words,  a total upset of popular opinion and

 expectations  is  approaching  that  should  result  in   acute   aggregate

 pessimism.  I have dubbed this approaching upset "The Crash".

                                 -The Crash-

     The most likely scenario for "The  Crash"  involves  a  surprise  third

 world war.  This scenario is based upon the theory that the Eastern powers,

 led by Russia,  have completely deceived the world by making peace with the

 West,  and America in particularly,  in order to make war.  The  stage  has

 been  set  such that Russia and its allies-of-old can now launch a war that

 the West least expects and,  in turn,  is least prepared for.  Furthermore,

 this  war can be started in such a way that the world will hold America and

 the Western powers responsible.

                              -New Lies For Old-

     Militaristic,  authoritarian powers such as Russia learned long ago the

 effectiveness  of  strategic deception.  Just as Hitler applied a "Big Lie"

 dictum to manipulate his opponents and his own people,  during the Cold War

 the  so-called  "communist"  powers of the East became quite adapt at using

 deception to get their way.  It is unlikely that this strategy changed with

 the introduction of Mikhail Gorbachev's "New Thinking" in  the  mid-1980's.

 {see:  KGB  defector Anatoliy Golitsyn's 'New Lies For Old' (1984),  and/or

 'Mesmerized by the Bear' (1987) edited by Raymond Sleeper}.

     By the 1980's, Russia and the powers of the East had amassed sufficient

 military strength  to  overtake  the  West.  However,  the  most  effective

 strategy  to  defeat  the  Western  powers required securing total surprise

 before launching an attack.  Furthermore,  the political costs of causing a

 global  holocaust of mass destruction are very high;  the East needed a way

 to reverse the blame for world war three on to the Western powers and world


                         -The Collapse of Communism-

     Over the past decade we have likely seen the  authoritarian  powers  of

 the East,  led by Russia,  implement deceptive multi-year plans designed to

 open the way for launching a successful  surprise  world  war  against  the

 West.  First off,  communism was done away with as an ideological front and

 there was  a  deceptive  conversion  to  capitalism  and  democracy.  Next,

 economic collapse and political instability were orchestrated in the "post-

 communist" world.

     The reason that Moscow has engineered the collapse of communism is two-

 fold.  First  off,  a tremendous false sense of security has been instilled

 in the West.  By aggressively pursuing peace,  friendship  and  cooperation

 with the Western powers throughout the collapse,  Russia and its historical

 allies have significantly reinforced Western trust.  The second reason  for

 staging the collapse is to reverse the blame for causing world war three on

 to  the  West.  With  the  communist  system seemingly gone and the Eastern

 powers apparently weak and vulnerable,  world war three can be triggered in

 a  way  that  appears  to  be  the  fault  of Western "imperialism" and the

 "internal contradictions" of the capitalist system.  All in all,  Moscow is

 hoping to win a hot war against the West by appearing to lose the Cold War.

                         -The Zhirinovsky Connection-

        I have been warning since 1992 that Moscow is planning to  stage

     Zhirinovsky's  rise to power in order to achieve critical strategic

     goals.  In the paper "The Zhirinovsky Connection",  which  I  wrote

     the  week  prior to the Russian parliamentary elections in December

     of  1993,   I  specifically  predicted  the  surprise  victory   of

     Zhirinovsky's party since I expected the elections to be rigged.

     A crucial feature of Moscow's strategy involves staging a radical power

 reversal in Russia so that  policies  of  Westernization  can  be  abruptly

 replaced  by  militant  anti-Western pursuits.  This way strategic surprise

 will be in place for any attack while blame is shifted as much as  possible

 away  from  the  old  communist establishment and on to the West.  Moscow's

 specific plan is to bring Vladimir Zhirinovsky to power, probably through a

 bogus coup, prior to launching its attack.

     The whole idea is to stage Zhirinovsky's rise to power and the outbreak

 of global war such that the Western  powers  and  world  capitalism  appear

 responsible.  This will be achieved in two ways.  First off,  according  to

 Marxist-Leninist  doctrine,  if  democracy  fails  to serve the purposes of

 capitalism,  then democracy  is  overthrown  and  replaced  with  a  facist

 dictatorship.  This  is  supposedly  what  happened  in  Germany during the

 1930's and led to the second world  war.  By  transforming  Russia  into  a

 capitalist democracy,  and by having Russian society collapse into the same

 situation as Weimar Germany,  the stage has been set for a shift to  facism

 and  the  rise of a militant,  Hitler-like dictator:  Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

 Moscow can then wage an all-out third world war against the West and  later

 attribute the world's destruction to the failings of the capitalist system.

 This, in turn, will create a pretext for establishing a global totalitarian

 state in the place of the capitalist system that was militarily destroyed.

     Another  way  Moscow plans to shift blame for global war on to the West

 is by underhandedly provoking the U.S.  and its allies into taking military

 action against Russian allies-of-old.  With the collapse of communism,  the

 U.S.  has taken on the role of "world policeman".  This has provided Moscow

 an  opportunity  to  lure  the  U.S.  and  its military allies into a trap,

 particularly by using the United Nations.

                       -The Role of the United Nations-

     Over  the  past  few  years,   Moscow  has  underhandedly  orchestrated

 international  crises  using  Russian  puppet states like Iraq,  Serbia and

 North Korea.  In response to these crises, i.e., Iraq's invasion of Kuwait,

 the civil war in Yugoslavia,  and the nuclear confrontation on  the  Korean

 Peninsula,  the U.S.  has sought to gain international support for applying

 sanctions and military pressure by acting in  the  context  of  the  United

 Nations.  Thus, since Washington needs Russia's cooperation and approval in

 the  Security  Council  to  take  any  actions,  the West's response to the

 instigated crises can  be  monitored  and  specifically  tailored  to  suit

 Moscow's objectives.

     The ultimate goal is to  draw  America  and  the  Western  allies  into

 military conflicts with Russian allies-of-old.  Consequently, it may appear

 as  if  the  U.S.  is  abusing  its  powers  as world policeman so that the

 "imperialist" West can dominate the world at Moscow's  expense.  This  will

 create a false pretense for massive Russian military aggression against the

 West.  Furthermore,  after  the U.S.  and the Western allies are destroyed,

 Moscow can create a world government to replace the United Nations and  the

 "New  World  Order" that was supposedly run so recklessly by Washington and

 the capitalist West.

                              -The Balkan Trap-

        In February of 1993 and 1994 I wrote editorials warning  of  how

     the  civil  war in Yugoslavia is a trap set by Moscow.  The idea is

     to draw the West into a major military  conflict  with  the  Serbs,

     Russia's  historical slavic ally,  in order to create a nationalist

     backlash in Moscow and, in turn, a false pretense for a third world


     One Russian ally-of-old  the  West  is  being  lured  into  a  military

 conflict  with  by  way of the U.N.  is Russia's slavic brethren the Serbs.

 There are indications that the war in the Balkans will soon explode.  Since

 Croatia recently  requested  the  U.N.  to  remove  peacekeepers  from  its

 territory, there is movement toward a new war between the Croats and Serbs.

 Furthermore,  last  December  the Bosnian Serbs called upon Jimmy Carter to

 help forge a ceasefire that went into effect at the beginning of the  year.

 The  lull  in fighting has allowed the Serbs to regroup and reinforce their

 forces, thus setting the stage for a wider Balkan war.

     As the Balkan conflict heats-up,  the Western allies will inevitably be

 drawn  into  the fray.  First off,  NATO will be called upon to defend U.N.

 peacekeepers caught in the middle of the fighting.  Secondly,  the  Western

 powers  will  seek to forcefully prevent the conflict from spreading into a

 regional war.

     Clearly,  if the U.S.  and NATO are drawn into a war against the Serbs,

 then  there  will be a nationalist backlash in Russia.  In fact,  there are

 strong indications that a Balkan  trap  will  be  used  as  a  pretext  for

 Vladimir  Zhirinovsky  to  launch  a  third  world  war  against  the West.

 Zhirinovsky has visited  Serbia  and  met  with  Serb  leaders  on  several

 occassions  over the past few years.  During these visits,  he has vowed to

 have Russia  militarily  defend  the  Serbs  against  NATO  attacks.  Thus,

 Western  military  involvement  in  the  Balkans  will  seemingly  act as a

 catalyst of violent Russian nationalism and,  in turn,  a third world  war.

 One  should  note that,  by using a Balkan trap to trigger world war three,

 Moscow hopes to mask its premeditated pursuit of a conflict with  the  West

 since  the first world war was spontaneously triggered from ethnic conflict


                         -The Persian Gulf Deception-

        One  of  the  main  reasons I noticed that Moscow is creating an

     unprecedented global deception  is  because  of  the  Persian  Gulf

     crisis  and war triggered by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August of

     1990.   There  were  profound  inconsistencies  and  contradictions

     surrounding  events in the Gulf and the behavior of Iraq and Russia

     which strongly indicated things were not what they seemed.  After a

     thorough investigation,  I concluded that the Persian  Gulf  crisis

     and  war  were  part  of  a  large-scale  strategic deception being

     engineered by Moscow.  My ideas are covered in depth in  the  paper

     "The Persian Gulf Deception", which I wrote over the course of 1991

     and 1992.

     Another  Russian  ally-of-old  that  may  soon provoke Western military

 action is Saddam Hussein's Iraq.  The main goal is to create the image that

 Iraq is a victim of relentless U.S.  imperialist aggression.  Over the past

 year  or so Saddam has been laying low and cooperating with the U.N.,  thus

 putting pressure on members of the Security Council to  ease  the  economic

 sanctions  against Iraq.  Then,  last October,  just as a monitoring system

 for weapons of mass destruction was up and running and there  was  movement

 toward  implementation  of  a  timetable for lifting the sanctions,  Saddam

 ordered his forces to mass on the Kuwaiti border as he did before  invading

 in 1990.  This threatening move provoked a major U.S.  military build-up in

 Kuwait and the Gulf region and has insured that sanctions against Iraq will

 not be lifted for the foreseeable future.

     With Saddam's latest provocation against the  world  community,  Moscow

 suddenly  and very suspiciously stepped in to support Iraq's efforts to end

 economic sanctions.  Russian Foreign  Minister  Kozyrev  paid  a  visit  to

 Baghdad during the October crisis and promised Saddam that he would seek to

 have  the  sanctions  lifted  if Iraq formally recognized Kuwait.  However,

 this promise was never endorsed by  the  U.N.  or  Washington,  nor,  given

 Saddam's  recent  stunt,  was there any reason to believe the U.S.  and the

 allies would ever go along with such an agreement.

     In November,  just before a U.N.  review of Iraq's compliance with  the

 Gulf  War  ceasefire   resolutions,   Iraq   formally   declared   Kuwait's

 recognition.  Thus,  a Security Council showdown has started between Moscow

 and Washington over lifting the economic sanctions against Iraq.  Since the

 U.S.  will continue to veto any moves to  lift  the  sanctions,  the  stage

 appears to be set for a violent crisis to erupt from the impasse.

     Supposedly  because  of  continuing  economic sanctions,  Saddam has an

 excuse to start fighting with the U.S. once again.  One possibility is that

 he will initially provoke Washington into taking  military  action  against

 Iraq, perhaps by moving some forces below the 32nd parallel in violation of

 a recent Security Council resolution.

     If hostilities are renewed against Iraq, Saddam will have a pretext for

 a radical military response.  Since it will appear that the West is seeking

 to do away with Saddam once and for all,  the Iraqi dictator will  have  an

 excuse  to  pull-off  a seemingly irrational,  kamikazee attack against his

 "imperialist enemies".  Given his threat to  "make  fire  eat  up  half  of

 Israel"  just  before he invaded Kuwait in 1990,  Saddam may be planning to

 launch a chemical SCUD attack against Israel.  That the Iraqi dictator  has

 something  like  this in mind seems even more evident given a recent speech

 in which Saddam stated:  "The Arab countries should be  asking  themselves,

 'Who  will  fire the 40th missile against Israel?'".  Iraq launched 39 SCUD

 missiles against Israel during the Gulf War.  Obviously, if Saddam launches

 a chemical SCUD attack against Israel,  an  unprecedented  crisis  will  be

 triggered in the Middle East that could involve a new Arab/Israeli war.

     There is little doubt that Saddam's Iraq is linked to  Zhirinovsky  and

 world war three.  Zhirinovsky's first diplomatic trip abroad was to Baghdad

 in  1992.  When allied air-strikes were carried out against Iraq in January

 of 1993,  Zhirinovsky sent a delegation  of  paramilitary  "volunteers"  to

 defend  Iraq  from  "reckless aggression by America and Israel".  Following

 the crisis last October,  Zhirinovsky paid a visit to Baghdad and took part

 in  an  "International  Legal  Congress  on  the  Cancellation of Sanctions

 Against Iraq".  Toward the end of this month,  Zhirinovsky is scheduled  to

 visit  Baghdad  again  to  discuss the lifting of economic sanctions.  This

 trip will coincide with the fourth anniversary of the end of the  Gulf  War

 and the second anniversary of the World Trade Center bombing which has been

 linked  to  Iraq.  Thus,  Moscow  may  be  up to something involving Saddam

 Hussein and Vladimir Zhirinovsky in the near future.

                            -The Korean Diversion-

        During the summer of  1994,  I  sent  out  numerous  editorials,

     dubbed "The Korean Diversion, The Zhirinovsky Connection, and World

     War Three",  to newspapers and magazines across the country warning

     of how Moscow may underhandedly ignite a  conflict  on  the  Korean

     Peninsula as part of a strategic diversion.

     A  final  historical  ally  of  Russia  that may soon become militarily

 involved with the West is North Korea.

     According  to the U.S.  Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time,  North Korea

 invaded South Korea under orders from Moscow in 1950.  Washington responded

 to this blatant violation of international law in the context of the United

 Nations.  Since Moscow was suspiciously absent at the time of the  Security

 Council  vote,  the  U.S.  received  U.N.  backing  for entering the war to

 support South Korea against North Korea's aggression.  This initial use  of

 the  U.N.  for  American military intervention was likely when Moscow first

 realized that the U.N.  could be used to manipulate  Western  military  and

 foreign policy.

     Every  indication  is that North Korea is again being used by Moscow to

 provoke U.S.  military action.  By stirring a confrontation with the United

 States  over its nuclear weapons program and creating an image of political

 instability, North Korea is setting the stage to reinvade South Korea.

     The  current  situation  was developing throughout 1994.  Between March

 and May of last year the North Koreans blocked IAEA inspections while  they

 shut  down  their  nuclear  power plant at Yongbyon and removed 8,000 spent

 fuel rods.  Once such rods have cooled for  several  months,  they  can  be

 reprocessed into bomb-grade plutonium that can be used to build five or six

 nuclear  weapons.  To  keep  North Korea from doing this,  Washington began

 threatening sanctions against Pyongyang and restarted high-level  talks  in

 order to reach an agreement to end the North's nuclear weapons program.

     Movement toward international sanctions against North Korea was stopped

 short  by Jimmy Carter's visit to Pyongyang last June.  Carter met with Kim

 Il-Sung,  the country's leader up until that time,  and reached a tentative

 agreement that seemed to resolve the developing crisis.  Though Kim Il-Sung

 had  been  preparing  to forcefully reunify the Korean Peninsula ever since

 the last Korean War ended in a stalemate, the aged leader seemed to have an

 unbelievable change of heart upon Carter's  visit.  Sung  proposed  holding

 the  first North/South summit in fifty years,  he called for a reduction in

 the armies of both sides to 100,000 soldiers from current levels of  around

 600,000 (actually northern forces are estimated to be well over a million),

 and  Sung  offered  to freeze the North's nuclear program and restart high-

 level talks with Washington.

     On July 8th,  the very day that high-level talks between Washington and

 Pyongyang restarted, North Korea reported that Kim Il-Sung had died from an

 "unexpected disease" of the heart.  Sung's son, Kim Jong-Il, who supposedly

 had been groomed to replace his father for some twenty years,  was  put  at

 the  nation's  helm.  Since  the  sudden  death  of  Kim  Il-Sung  led to a

 cancellation of high-level talks  between  Washington  and  Pyongyang,  and

 because  Kim  Jong-Il  is  reported  to be sickly and possibly insane,  the

 crisis over North Korea's nuclear pursuits reemerged- with the added danger

 of political instability in Pyongyang.


 (The odds are that the untimely death of Kim Il-Sung in early-July from  an

 "unexpected  disease" was not what it seemed.  'Defense and Foreign Affairs

 Strategic Policy' journal received word at the end of June that significant

 change was imminent in North  Korea  and  consequently  chose  to  hold-off

 publishing   its   July  edition  for  several  days.   Therefore,   Sung's

 "unexpected disease" was somehow anticipated by someone.)

     Compounding the seeming danger of political  turmoil  in  North  Korea,

 last year Pyongyang mysteriously saw the return of potential rivals for the

 throne such as Kim Il Sung's brother,  Kim Yong-Ju, and Kim Jong-Il's step-

 brother, Kim Pyong-Il.  The indication is that the stage is being set, most

 likely intentionally, for some sort of bogus power struggle in North Korea-

 signs of which the Pyongyang has been relaying to the world ever since  Kim

 Il-Sung died.

     High-level  talks between Washington and Pyongyang resumed last August,

 and at the end of October an agreement was finally reached  to  settle  the

 nuclear  stand-off.  Apparently  intimidated  by  the  seeming  prospect of

 political turmoil in North Korea,  Washington made  huge  concessions  with

 Pyongyang  in  order  to  reach  an agreement that would freeze the North's

 nuclear program,  open the way for IAEA inspections,  and insure  that  the

 8,000 cooling fuel rods are not reprocessed into bomb-grade plutonium.

     Now  that an accord is reached,  the stage is set for a total reversal.

 There is little question that North Korea is planning to invade  the  South

 in  the  near-future.  The  North  just  completed  a  two-year  program to

 reorganize their defense and intelligence  establishments,  and  its  armed

 forces  are  now  mobilized and reinforced in forward positions optimal for

 launching a surprise attack.  In order to justify an  attack,  the  nuclear

 stand-off  may be used to force Washington's hand.  Pyongyang will probably

 stage some sort of power struggle and possibly violate  the  new  agreement

 with  Washington,  maybe by removing the spent fuel rods from safe storage.

 As the U.S.  responds by applying economic sanctions and possibly  military

 pressure, the North can invade the South.

     One  of  Moscow's possible motives for igniting the Korean Peninsula is

 to create some kind of strategic diversion.  A major  concern  of  American

 commanders during the last Korean war was that the conflict was a precursor

 to  a  full-scale  war  with Russia.  The Joint Chiefs of Staff were fairly

 certain that Moscow was behind North Korea's  surprise  invasion  of  South

 Korea  in  June  of  1950,  and,  as the war expanded,  there was a growing

 concern that the Soviets were seeking to  divert  U.S.  military  resources

 into the Far East in order to open the way for an offensive against Western

 Europe.  Such a concern may be relevant to a new war in Korea,  except that

 Russia's eventual target is more likely Israel and the Middle  East  rather

 than Western Europe.

     That a Korean conflict is an important part of  Vladimir  Zhirinovsky's

 bogus rise to power and the outbreak of world war three is indicated by the

 fact  that Zhirinovsky and a large delegation from his political party took

 part in an unprecedented visit to North Korea last October.  He was invited

 by the new North Korean leader,  Kim Jong-Il.  Zhirinovsky's visit was most

 remarkable  given  that  he was the first foreign politician to go to North

 Korea following Kim Il-Sung's death.  In fact, it took place before the end

 of the 100-day mourning period for the late North Korean leader.

                     -Russia's "Last Dash to the South"-

     All in all,  by luring the West into conflicts with Russian  allies-of-

 old,  Moscow creates a pretext for launching world war three.  First off, a

 bogus Zhirinovsky coup can be thrown in  Moscow,  possibly  along  with  an

 untimely demise of Boris Yeltsin from ill-health or death.  Meanwhile,  due

 to a "nationalist backlash" stemming from Western "imperialist  aggression"

 against historical Russian allies like the Serbs,  a pretext is created for

 launching world war three.  With flashpoints like the Balkans,  the Persian

 Gulf and the Korean Peninsula ignited,  the stage will be set for Russia to

 wage a "Last Dash to  the  South",  the  title  of  Zhirinovsky's  supposed


     Zhirinovsky's  "Last   Dash   to   the   South"   apparently   outlines

 military/strategic objectives Moscow is hoping to achieve.  What is planned

 is  a Russian military campaign to dominate an arc of territory to Russia's

 south stretching from the Balkans in the west all the  way  to  East  Asia.

 Undoubtedly  a major goal is to overrun the Middle/Near East so that Moscow

 will have almost total control of the world's oil supply.  Since the global

 economy is wholly dependent on oil, Russia will gain control of the world.

                       -False Peace in the Middle East-

     Given  the  focus  on oil,  the odds are that the Middle East will be a

 primary target as  Moscow's  military  campaign  gets  underway.  In  fact,

 Russia  may  be  planning  to  use an Arab/Israeli conflict as some sort of

 trigger for global nuclear war.

     Moscow's last dash south and preparations for global  nuclear  conflict

 may  begin  with  a  conflict  in the Caucasus and instigating some sort of

 Russian conflict with the Ukraine.  In terms of  conventional  mobilization

 and   moving  Russian  forces  south,   Moscow  may  use  current  military

 intervention in the breakaway republic of Chechnya or  a  flare-up  in  the

 conflict  between  Armenia  and  Azerbaijan  as some sort of cover.  As for

 mobilizing Russia's  strategic  nuclear  forces,  a  useful  pretext  is  a

 conflict  with  the  Ukraine over the Crimea.  Since a significant share of

 Russia's nuclear weapons are located in the Ukraine, any such conflict will

 mask mobilizing Russia's nuclear forces for an attack against the West.

     In the epilogue of my 1992  paper,  "The  Persian  Gulf  Deception",  I

 outlined  how  recent  developments  in  the  Middle  East might be part of

 Moscow's strategy for global war:  "In the context of a grand  strategy  by

 the  East to deceive the West,  the current Arab/Israeli peace talks should

 be considered a strategic deception.  The purpose of such a deception would

 likely be two-fold: 1.) to set the stage for a 'surprise' Arab/Israeli war,

 and 2.) to insure world war three is blamed on the  West  rather  than  the

 East." The recent peace agreements signed by Israel and the P.L.O.  as well

 as Israel and Jordan are likely false.  Undoubtedly the current false peace

 in the Middle East will be followed by war.

     Once sufficient peace is achieved,  the Arabs  will  probably  seek  to

 provoke  Israel  and/or  the  U.S.  into triggering war.  One possibility I

 pointed out in 1992 is that:  "As the Arabs pursue peace, they increasingly

 appear  to  be  peace-oriented rather than belligerent.  Meanwhile,  Israel

 appears  to  be  increasingly  belligerent  rather  than  peaceful  because

 stepped-up  terrorist attacks have provoked Israeli raids against terrorist

 factions in southern Lebanon.  By linking a future war to Israeli action in

 Lebanon, the Arabs could significantly reverse any blame."

     Another  possibility  I  mentioned  in my 1992 paper was that:  "...war

 could be set-off in the Middle East in a way that appears to be the  West's

 fault  by  having  Saddam  provoke a crisis with the West and then launch a

 kamikazee  attack  against  Israel.  Following  an  Iraqi  chemical  attack

 against the Jewish state- an action which would revive memories of Hitler's

 gassing  of  the Jews- Israeli retaliation will be both assured and severe.

 Israel's  military  response  could,  in  turn,   be  used  by  the  Arabs-

 particularly  Syria-  as a pretense for war that,  due to the current peace

 efforts, would effectively be a surprise."

     As I wrote in 1992:  "All in all, by using Iraq,  and possibly Lebanon,

 to spawn a primary crisis,  the Arabs could launch an attack against Israel

 and have it appear to be the West's fault."

     The likely goal of any Arab attack against Israel is  to  provoke  "The

 Samson  Option".   The  Samson  Option  is  Israel's  doctrine  of  nuclear

 retaliation against the Arabs and their allies,  including Russia,  in  the

 event  that Israel is hopelessly overrun.  It is likely that Moscow intends

 to use such an Israeli nuclear response as an excuse for an all-out nuclear

 attack against the West.


     In conclusion,  the world may soon experience virtual  self-destruction

 in the form of an all-out East/West  conflict.  With  a  bogus  Zhirinovsky

 coup  thrown  in  Moscow  and  Western  military  intervention  provoked at

 flashpoints around the world,  the stage will be set for the East to launch

 a  massive  attack  against the West.  This expectation is derived from the

 realization  that,  over  the  past  several  years,  the  communist  world

 intentionally  brought  about  its own seeming collapse in order to deceive

 the West into a false sense of security and  open  the  way  for  waging  a

 surprise  third  world war.  Undoubtedly,  after the dust settles from this

 apocalyptic  conflict,  the  old  communist  establishment  will  reemerge,

 apparently  blame-free,  under  the veil of orthodox christianity and claim

 that it is saving the world  from  the  evils  of  the  capitalist  system,

 liberal   democracy  and  the  West.   Russia  can  then  create  a  global

 authoritarian government in the place  of  the  United  States  and  United


                        For global sanity to prevail,

             people must find the courage to accept "The Truth"...