The Persian Gulf Deception Part III
(notes references)
Date: Thu, 02 Mar 95 00:23:34 EST
Subject: 7. The Persian Gulf Deception (notes & references) (fwd)
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***THE PERSIAN GULF DECEPTION***
By J. Adams
-Notes & References-
"The great masses of the people...
will more easily fall victims to a great lie than to a small one."
(Adolph Hitler)
From: 'Mein Kampf', Chapter 10.
"We have no right ever to forget that psychological warfare
is a struggle for winning people's minds."
(Mikhail Gorbachev)
From: "Soviet Disinformation Chief:
A Master at Using Words as Cold-War Weapons",
'The New York Tribune': 7/27/87.
NOTES
1. General Schwarzkopf made this comment while answering questions from
the press following the Gulf War.
2. This idea is covered in depth in another paper I wrote entitled: "The
Total Lie".
The main purpose of a grand deception would be to set the stage for a
Russian nuclear surprise attack. To understand how this could be,
simply consider the following three points:
I) The seeming collapse of Soviet communism has almost completely
undone Western expectations of a preemptive nuclear attack. This
entails that:
a) Russia can currently launch the 10,000+ nuclear weapons it
still has targetted against America and its allies, and it will
be a complete surprise. In other words, because we no longer
expect it, Russia can now launch a 'surprise' attack.
That this is what Moscow has been planning the whole time would
explain why military spending went up under Gorbachev in stark
contradiction to the supposedly peace-oriented change in
Moscow's foreign policy (i). It would also explain why the
Soviets concentrated on expanding and modernizing their
strategic nuclear forces over the past seven years while at the
same time forging and signing agreements with the West to get
rid of such weapons (ii).
b) Since it is not expected, America and its allies have
increasingly dropped their guard against a nuclear attack, thus
the West is now most vulnerable to one (see note 70).
II) The disintegration of the Soviet empire not only has minimized
Western perceptions of the Soviet military threat, it has reduced
Soviet vulnerability to Western nuclear retaliation. By letting
go of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Republics, Moscow has
constrained its vulnerable targets to Mother Russia. Thus,
roughly two-thirds of its previous empire is now safe from Western
nuclear retaliation following a Russian attack- and that's not
counting unconnected puppet states like Cuba (iii).
The idea that the breakup of the Soviet empire was intentional is
substantiated by reports that the KGB instigated, rather than
sought to repress, the popular uprisings in, at the least, the
Eastern European states (iv). Furthermore, it explains why the
Soviets never used military force to restore order and control in
their empire as had been done throughout the previous 70 years.
Lastly, an intentional breakup would explain what interest the
Communist Party had in voting itself out of existence.
III) A major element of the Soviet Union's seeming demise has been an
economic collapse and increasingly severe food crisis. The
failure of the Soviet economy has been rather peculiar, however,
in that, as production and employment remained high, the
availability of goods for consumers dwindled. This has been
attributed to failures in the Soviet distribution system.
However, that goods have been produced but not consumed indicates
that a large surplus is being lost somewhere. While Western
analysts have concluded that there has been a tremendous amount of
waste, in the context of a Soviet grand deception to wage a
surprise nuclear war, it would make sense that the Soviets have
been using an economic crisis as a cover for mass stockpiling.
This would be consistent with how Moscow has spent hundreds of
billions of dollars on elaborate and comprehensive civil defense
programs which have rivalled Soviet strategic arms programs in
both cost and scale (v). It would also explain why shortages have
persisted even though many food warehouses throughout Russia are
full- partially due to generous Western aid (vi). Lastly, such an
economic deception would explain why Western intelligence found
that Soviet officials began systematically 'under'-estimating
economic output and potential after Gorbachev came to power (vii).
i. Specifically, Soviet defense expenditures increased by 3
percent per year in real terms under Gorbachev. See:
'Soviet Military Power'. US Department of Defense;
Washington, DC: (esp. 1989).
ii. See, for instance:
Cline, Ray (ed). 'Behind the Smile Are Teeth of Iron'. US
Global Strategy Council; Washington, DC: 1989.
iii. In terms of population and economic potential. Regarding US
and NATO retargetting activities, see:
Kruzel, Joseph. '1991-92 American Defense Annual'. Lexington
Books; Lexington, MA: 1992; 76-77.
iv. Leonard, Paul. "Countdown to Destruction". 'Fatima Crusader':
10-11/90; 14.
v. See, for instance:
'Soviet Military Power': 1988.
Broder, John. "Underground Shelters Built for Soviet
Leaders". 'Los Angeles Times': 4/30/88: I,16.
vi. See, for instance:
Parks, Michael. "Food Shipments Trapped in Web of Soviet
Inefficiency". 'Los Angeles Times': 12/11/90; A6.
Blitz, James. "Hunger in the Heart of Plenty". 'The Sunday
Times': 12/9/90.
vii. Epstein, Edward. 'Deception: The Invisible War Between the
KGB and the CIA'. Simon and Schuster; New York, NY: 1989;
241.
For an overview of Soviet strategy for surprise nuclear war, see:
Douglass, Joseph D., Jr. 'Soviet Strategy for Nuclear War'. Hoover
Institute Press; Stanford, CA: 1979.
Van Cleave, Dr. William R. "Soviet Strategic Nuclear Forces and Goals:
Deception and Surprise". From: 'Mesmerized By The Bear' Sleeper,
Raymond (ed). Dodd, Mead, & Co. New York, NY: 1987; 89-109.
For an overall idea of how and why the military powers of the East- led
by Soviet Russia- may be pursuing a grand strategy to deceive and
militarily conquer the West, see:
Beichman, Arnold. 'The Long Pretense: Soviet Treaty Diplomacy from
Lenin to Gorbachev'. Transaction Publishers; New Brunswick, NJ: 1991.
Cline, Ray (ed). 'Behind the Smile Are Teeth of Iron'. US Global
Strategy Council; Washington, DC: 1989.
Daily, Brian and Patrick Parker (eds). 'Soviet Strategic Deception'.
Lexington Books; Lexingtion, MA: 1987.
Douglass, Joseph D., Jr. 'Soviet Strategy for Nuclear War'. Hoover
Institute Press; Stanford, CA: 1979.
Epstein, Edward Jay. 'Deception: The Secret War Between the KGB and the
CIA'. Simon & Schuster; New York, NY: 1989.
Golitsyn, Anatoliy. 'New Lies for Old: The Communist Strategy of
Deception and Disinformation'. Dodd, Mead; New York, NY: 1984.
Kintner, William. 'Soviet Global Strategy'. Hero Books; Fairfax, VA:
1987.
Kintner, William and Harriet Scott (eds). 'The Nuclear Revolution in
Soviet Military Affairs'. University of Oklahoma Press; Norman, OK:
1968.
Sleeper, Raymond (ed). 'Mesmerized By The Bear'. Dodd, Mead, & Co.
New York, NY: 1987.
3. "A Slow Slide Toward War". 'Newsweek': 7/2/90; 29.
4. Information compiled from various news sources. For a thorough
analysis of Saddam's military going into the Gulf War, see:
Darwish, Adel and Gregory Alexander. 'Unholy Babylon'. St. Martin's
Press. New York, NY: 1991; 85-178.
5. Kondracke, Morton. "Saddamnation". 'The New Republic': 5/7/90; 10-11.
6. "The Guns of August". 'The New Republic': 9/3/90; 9.
7. "A Slow Slide Toward War".
8. Kondracke; 10.
9. Bulloch, John and Harvey Morris. 'Saddam's War'. Faber & Faber, Inc.
Winchester, MA: 1991; 1-2.
10. Bulloch and Morris; 102.
11. Bulloch and Morris- also see:
"Standing up to Saddam Hussein". 'Economist': 7/28/90; 11-12.
12. Kruzel, Joseph (ed). '1991-92 American Defense Annual'. Lexington
Books; Lexington, MA: 1992; 1.
13. "The Guns of August".
14. For a synopsis of Resolution 660, see: Darwish and Alexander; 308.
15. For a thorough "Diary of the Gulf Crisis", see: Darwish and Alexander;
299-307.
16. Bulloch and Morris; 5.
17. Darwish and Alexander; 299-307.
18. Kruzel; 107.
19. Kruzel; 1.
20. "US Says Early Air Attack Caught Iraq Off Guard". 'New York Times'.
1/18/91; A10.
21. Grier, Peter. "Iraq's Chemical Weapons Found to be Potent".
'Christian Science Monitor': 1/23/92; 1.
Also from Associated Press (AP) reports taken off Dow Jones News
Retrieval on April 19, 1991.
22. For a thorough examination of Iraqi development and usage of chemical
weapons, see: Darwish and Alexander; 101-114.
23. Grier; 1.
24. Darwish and Alexander; 112.
25. "The Fury of Desert Storm". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91; 74.
26. Tyler, Patrick E. "Iraq's War Toll Estimated by U.S.; 100,000 Killed
and 300,000 hurt in Persian Gulf cited as tentative figures". 'New
York Times': 6/5/91; A5.
27. "The 100-Hour War". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91; 16.
28. "The 100-Hour War".
29. "U.N. Survey Calls Iraq's War Damage Near-Apocalyptic". 'New York
Times': 3/22/91; A1.
30. "The 100-Hour War".
31. "Intelligence in a World of Change (Satellites and Humans)".
'Government Executive' (serial): National Journal, Inc.; Washington,
DC: 3/92.
32. For a thorough examination of Iraq's nuclear program, see: Darwish and
Alexander; 178-196.
33. Widely reported in the summer of 1991.
Meisler, Stanley. "300 Iraq SCUDs Missing, U.N. Team Reports". 'Los
Angeles Times': 11/2/91; A10.
(also from CNN news reports)
34. Epstein, Edward Jay. "Virtual Ally: What's the Soviet Game in the
Gulf?". 'The New Republic': 9/3/90; 19-20.
35. Bulloch and Morris; 20.
-the Soviets also profitted from their huge gold, silver, and diamond
exports, because precious metals and gems went up in value sharply
with the Crisis.
36. Epstein; 19, 20.
37. Kondracke; 12.
38. McAlvany, Don. "Middle East Aflame: Oil Wars in the Persian Gulf".
'McAlvany Intelligence Advisor' (serial). Phoenix, AZ: 8/90.
Reprinted in:
'The Fatima Crusader' (serial). Constable, NY: 10-11/90; 5-10.
39. Morris, Robert. 'Our Globe Under Siege III'. Better Baby;
Philadelphia, PA: 1988; 182.
Referenced in: 'McAlvany Intelligence Advisor' (see note 35).
Specifically, Morris quoted columnist Paul Scott who listed eight
facilities which included:
1) A major naval facility at Umn Qasr at the mouth of the Shaat-al
Arab which flows into the Persian Gulf. This base includes
maintenance facilities for ships and basing for equipment and
ammunition. There are also boarding ramps for Hovercraft that can
transport naval infantry from the base.
2) The naval installations and facilities at Zubior and al Qurnah,
the former on a body of water below the Euphrates River and the
latter on the Tigris. Both ports can service Soviet warships.
3) There are air bases at Sulaymaniyah in the northeast mosul in the
north central sector of the country.
40. Darwish and Alexander; 136.
41. "Moscow Fears Iraq Won't Pay Back Big Debt". 'Oil & Gas Journal':
9/17/90; 28.
42. Rosenthal, A. M. "Why Moscow Wants to Save Saddam".
Printed in:
Sifry, Micah and Christopher Cerf (eds). 'The Gulf War Reader:
History, Documents, Opinions'. Times Books; New York, NY: 1991; 346.
43. Mann, Paul. "Judging the Soviets in the Gulf: Are They as Weak as They
Look?". 'Aviation Week & Space Technology': 12/3/90; 24.
44. "Iraq Hints at Flexibility; Allies Focus Bombardment". 'Gannett News
Service': 2/12/91.
45. Howard, Michael and Robert Lovett. "The Burdens of Victory". 'U.S.
News & World Report': 7/13/91; 48-49.
46. Darwish and Alexander; 283.
47. Mann.
48. Bulloch and Morris; 20.
49. Private source.
50. For instance, see:
Sterling, Claire. 'The Terror Network: The Secret War of International
Terrorism'. Berkley Books; New York, NY: 1982.
51. Epstein; 20.
52. Kondracke; 10.
53. McAlvany.
54. Epstein.
55. Epstein.
56. Leonard, Paul. "Countdown to Destruction". 'The Fatima Crusader': 10-
11/90; 13.
57. "Iraq Hints at Flexibility; Allies Focus Bombardment".
58. 'The American Sentinel' (serial). Phillips Publishing Co.;
Washington, DC: 8/90.
Quoted in: "Newspage". 'The Fatima Crusader': 10-11/90; 11.
59. Walte, Juan. "U.S. Tried to Nab Soviets Aiding Iraq". 'USA Today':
3/19/91; A4.
Also see:
"Some Secrets of Gulf War Might Never Be Told". 'Gannett News
Service': 3/19/91.
"Iraq Hints at Peace Effort; Demands End to Air War; U.S. Cautious".
'USA Today': 2/13/91; A1.
60. Many people have indicated a belief that Western intelligence must be
aware of the potential for a Soviet grand deception or deception in
the Gulf as is spelt out in my views. However, this a false belief
premised on ignorant and irrational faith. If Western intelligence
had any suspicion of a deception, the West would never have dropped
its guard the way it has- particularly against a nuclear surprise
attack. Every indication is that Western 'intelligence' has been
outsmarted by the 'intelligencia' of the East. To better understand
how this could be so, see:
Epstein, Edward Jay. 'Deception: The Secret War Between the KGB and
the CIA'. Simon & Schuster; New York, NY: 1989.
Golitsyn, Anatoliy. 'New Lies for Old: The Communist Strategy of
Deception and Disinformation'. Dodd, Mead; New York, NY: 1984.
It should be noted here that, if the Soviets have succeeded in
misleading us, it is not due so much to their deceptions as to our own
self-deceptions. Lenin once said that the best way to overcome the
West was to: 'tell them what they want to hear'. It seems Gorbachev
may have carried this logic one step further to: 'show them what they
want to see'. The point is that Westerners have proven time and time
again that they will 'hear what they want to hear' and 'see what they
want to see' regardless of the truth of the matter. In other words,
our selfish fears, pride, and desires, mislead us into accepting
illusions- lies- rather than reality and the truth. Hitler realized
this and used it to his advantage resulting in World War II and the
virtual loss of free-Europe. Now it appears history may be repeating
itself and the consequence will be World War III and the loss of the
free-world.
61. See note 2.
62. Most of these are readily apparent points- for specific examples see:
Howard; 44. Also see:
Schoenfeld, Gabriel. "The Loser of the Gulf War Is... the Soviet
Military." (editorial) 'Wall Street Journal': 3/19/91; A24.
63. That the Soviets are planning to invade Europe later on would explain
why they left large stocks of ammunition in Eastern Europe in the wake
of their military pull-out.
See: Kruzel, 222.
64. Birnbaum, Jesse. "How Many Wars Can the U.S. Fight?". 'Time'. 3/4/91;
38-39.
65. Birnbaum; 38.
66. Montgomery, Paul L. "NATO Is Planning to Cut U.S. Forces in Europe by
50%". 'New York Times': 5/29/91; A1.
67. "Spirit of CFE Treaty Disappears East of the Urals". 'Financial
Times': 11/15/90; (European News), 2.
"A Factor in the Soviet Food Crisis". 'New York Times': 1/4/91; A4.
68. Mendelsohn, Jack. "Just How Deceitful are the Soviets?" (editorial)
'Wall Street Journal': 2/26/91; A15.
69. "A Glimpse at the Troubled Soviet Army". 'U.S. News & World Report':
12/17/90; 54.
70. In late September of 1991, George Bush ordered that the U.S.
strategic bomber fleet be stood-down and dismantled and that all
Minuteman II ICBM's be deactivated. Furthermore, he announced that
all tactical nuclear weapons were to be pulled off U.S. naval vessels
and 80 percent of American nuclear defenses in Western Europe were to
be removed. These goals are today complete (completion date: July 1,
1992). This information is widely available in popular press reports.
For a report on how America's guard against a Soviet nuclear sneak
attack has been significantly lowered, see:
"Why America New Sentinel Works Only a 40-Hour Week". 'U.S. News &
World Report': 5/20/91.
71. Comments following the Gulf War. 'The New York Times': 3/3/91; E2.
* * * * *
REFERENCES
Beichman, Arnold. 'The Long Pretense: Soviet Treaty Diplomacy from Lenin to
Gorbachev'. Transaction Publishers; New Brunswick, NJ: 1991.
Blitz, James. "Hunger in the Heart of Plenty". 'The Sunday Times': 12/9/90.
Broder, John. "Underground Shelters Built for Soviet Leaders". 'Los Angeles
Times': 4/30/88.
Bulloch, John and Harvey Morris. 'Saddam's War'. Faber & Faber, Inc.
Winchester, MA: 1991.
Cline, Ray (ed). 'Behind the Smile Are Teeth of Iron'. US Global Strategy
Council; Washington, DC: 1988.
Daily, Brian and Patrick Parker (eds). 'Soviet Strategic Deception'.
Lexington Books; Lexingtion, MA: 1987.
Darwish, Adel and Gregory Alexander. 'Unholy Babylon'. St. Martin's
Press. New York, NY: 1991.
Douglass, Joseph D., Jr. 'Soviet Strategy for Nuclear War'. Hoover
Institute Press; Stanford, CA: 1979.
Epstein, Edward Jay. 'Deception: The Secret War Between the KGB and the
CIA'. Simon & Schuster; New York, NY: 1989.
Epstein, Edward Jay. "Virtual Ally: What's the Soviet Game in the Gulf?".
'The New Republic': 9/3/90.
"A Factor in the Soviet Food Crisis". 'New York Times': 1/4/91.
"The Fury of Desert Storm". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91.
Golitsyn, Anatoliy. 'New Lies for Old: The Communist Strategy of Deception
and Disinformation'. Dodd, Mead; New York, NY: 1984.
Grier, Peter. "Iraq's Chemical Weapons Found to be Potent". 'Christian
Science Monitor': 1/23/92.
"The Guns of August". 'The New Republic': 9/3/90.
Howard, Michael and Robert Lovett. "The Burdens of Victory". 'U.S. News &
World Report': 7/13/91.
"The 100-Hour War". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91.
"Intelligence in a World of Change (Satellites and Humans)". 'Government
Executive': 3/92.
"Iraq Hints at Flexibility; Allies Focus Bombardment". 'Gannett News
Service': 2/12/91.
"Iraq Hints at Peace Effort; Demands End to Air War; U.S. Cautious". 'USA
Today': 2/13/91.
Kintner, William. 'Soviet Global Strategy'. Hero Books; Fairfax, VA: 1987.
Kintner, William and Harriet Scott (eds). 'The Nuclear Revolution in Soviet
Military Affairs'. University of Oklahoma Press; Norman, OK: 1968.
Kondracke, Morton. "Saddamnation". 'The New Republic': 5/7/90.
Kruzel, Joseph (ed). '1991-92 American Defense Annual'. Lexington Books;
Lexington, MA: 1992.
Leonard, Paul. "Countdown to Destruction". 'The Fatima Crusader' (serial).
Constable, NY: 10-11/90.
Mann, Paul. "Judging the Soviets in the Gulf: Are They as Weak as They
Look?". 'Aviation Week & Space Technology': 12/3/90.
McAlvany, Don. "Middle East Aflame: Oil Wars in the Persian Gulf".
'McAlvany Intelligence Advisor' (serial). Phoenix, AZ: 8/90.
Mendelsohn, Jack. "Just How Deceitful are the Soviets?" (editorial). 'Wall
Street Journal': 2/26/91.
Meisler, Stanley. "300 Iraq SCUDs Missing, U.N. Team Reports". 'Los
Angeles Times': 11/2/91.
Montgomery, Paul L. "NATO Is Planning to Cut U.S. Forces in Europe by
50%". 'New York Times': 5/29/91.
Morris, Robert. 'Our Globe Under Siege III'. Better Baby; Philadelphia,
PA: 1987.
"Moscow Fears Iraq Won't Pay Back Big Debt". 'Oil & Gas Journal': 9/17/90.
"Newspage". 'The Fatima Crusader' (serial). Constable, NY: 10-11/90.
Parks, Michael. "Food Shipments Trapped in Web of Soviet Inefficiency".
'Los Angeles Times': 12/11/90.
Schoenfeld, Gabriel. "The Loser of the Gulf War Is... the Soviet Military"
(editorial). 'Wall Street Journal'.
Sifry, Micah and Christopher Cerf (eds). 'The Gulf War Reader: History,
Documents, Opinions'. Times Books; New York, NY: 1991.
Sleeper, Raymond (ed). 'Mesmerized By The Bear'. Dodd, Mead, & Co. New
York, NY: 1987.
"A Slow Slide Toward War". 'Newsweek': 7/2/90.
"Some Secrets of Gulf War Might Never Be Told". Gannett News Service.
3/19/91.
'Soviet Military Power'. US Department of Defense; Washington, DC.
"Spirit of CFE Treaty Disappears East of the Urals". 'Financial Times':
11/15/90; (European News).
Sterling, Claire. 'The Terror Network: The Secret War of International
Terrorism'. Berkley Books; New York, NY: 1982.
Tyler, Patrick E. "Iraq's War Toll Estimated by U.S.; 100,000 Killed and
300,000 hurt in Persian Gulf cited as tentative figures". 'New York
Times': 6/5/91.
"U.N. Survey Calls Iraq's War Damage Near-Apocalyptic". 'New York Times':
3/22/91.
"U.S. Says Early Air Attack Caught Iraq Off Guard". 'New York Times'.
1/18/91.
Walte, Juan. "U.S. Tried to Nab Soviets Aiding Iraq". 'USA Today'.
3/19/91.
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