The Persian Gulf Deception Part III
(notes references)

Date:         Thu, 02 Mar 95 00:23:34 EST


Subject:      7.  The Persian Gulf Deception  (notes & references) (fwd)


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                       ***THE PERSIAN GULF DECEPTION***


                                 By J. Adams


                             -Notes & References-


                      "The great masses of the people...


      will more easily fall victims to a great lie than to a small one."





                               (Adolph Hitler)





                       From:  'Mein Kampf', Chapter 10.











         "We have no right ever to forget that psychological warfare


                  is a struggle for winning people's minds."





                             (Mikhail Gorbachev)





                     From:  "Soviet Disinformation Chief:


                A Master at Using Words as  Cold-War Weapons",


                       'The New York Tribune': 7/27/87.











                                    NOTES





 1.  General Schwarzkopf made this comment while  answering  questions  from


     the press following the Gulf War.





 2.  This  idea is covered in depth in another paper I wrote entitled:  "The


     Total Lie".





     The main purpose of a grand deception would be to set the stage  for  a


     Russian  nuclear  surprise  attack.  To  understand  how this could be,


     simply consider the following three points:








     I)   The seeming collapse of Soviet  communism  has  almost  completely


          undone  Western expectations of a preemptive nuclear attack.  This


          entails that:





          a) Russia can currently launch  the  10,000+  nuclear  weapons  it


             still has targetted against America and its allies, and it will


             be  a complete surprise.  In other words,  because we no longer


             expect it, Russia can now launch a 'surprise' attack.





             That this is what Moscow has been planning the whole time would


             explain why military spending went up under Gorbachev in  stark


             contradiction   to  the  supposedly  peace-oriented  change  in


             Moscow's foreign policy (i).  It would  also  explain  why  the


             Soviets   concentrated   on  expanding  and  modernizing  their


             strategic nuclear forces over the past seven years while at the


             same time forging and signing agreements with the West  to  get


             rid of such weapons (ii).





          b) Since  it  is  not  expected,   America  and  its  allies  have


             increasingly dropped their guard against a nuclear attack, thus


             the West is now most vulnerable to one (see note 70).








     II)  The  disintegration  of  the  Soviet empire not only has minimized


          Western perceptions of the Soviet military threat,  it has reduced


          Soviet  vulnerability  to Western nuclear retaliation.  By letting


          go  of  Eastern  Europe  and  the  Soviet  Republics,  Moscow  has


          constrained  its  vulnerable  targets  to  Mother  Russia.   Thus,


          roughly two-thirds of its previous empire is now safe from Western


          nuclear retaliation following a Russian  attack-  and  that's  not


          counting unconnected puppet states like Cuba (iii).





          The  idea that the breakup of the Soviet empire was intentional is


          substantiated by reports that  the  KGB  instigated,  rather  than


          sought  to repress,  the popular uprisings in,  at the least,  the


          Eastern European states (iv).  Furthermore,  it explains  why  the


          Soviets  never used military force to restore order and control in


          their empire as had been done throughout the  previous  70  years.


          Lastly,  an  intentional  breakup  would explain what interest the


          Communist Party had in voting itself out of existence.





     III) A major element of the Soviet Union's seeming demise has  been  an


          economic  collapse  and  increasingly  severe  food  crisis.   The


          failure of the Soviet economy has been rather  peculiar,  however,


          in  that,   as  production  and  employment  remained  high,   the


          availability of  goods  for  consumers  dwindled.  This  has  been


          attributed   to   failures  in  the  Soviet  distribution  system.


          However,  that goods have been produced but not consumed indicates


          that  a  large  surplus  is  being  lost somewhere.  While Western


          analysts have concluded that there has been a tremendous amount of


          waste,  in the context of a  Soviet  grand  deception  to  wage  a


          surprise  nuclear  war,  it would make sense that the Soviets have


          been using an economic crisis as a cover for mass stockpiling.





          This would be consistent with how Moscow  has  spent  hundreds  of


          billions  of  dollars on elaborate and comprehensive civil defense


          programs which have rivalled Soviet  strategic  arms  programs  in


          both cost and scale (v).  It would also explain why shortages have


          persisted  even  though many food warehouses throughout Russia are


          full- partially due to generous Western aid (vi).  Lastly, such an


          economic deception would explain why  Western  intelligence  found


          that  Soviet  officials  began  systematically  'under'-estimating


          economic output and potential after Gorbachev came to power (vii).








          i.   Specifically,  Soviet defense  expenditures  increased  by  3


               percent per year in real terms under Gorbachev.  See:





               'Soviet   Military   Power'.   US   Department   of  Defense;


               Washington, DC: (esp. 1989).





          ii.  See, for instance:





               Cline,  Ray  (ed).  'Behind the Smile Are Teeth of Iron'.  US


               Global Strategy Council; Washington, DC: 1989.





          iii. In  terms of population and economic potential.  Regarding US


               and NATO retargetting activities, see:





               Kruzel, Joseph. '1991-92 American Defense Annual'.  Lexington


               Books; Lexington, MA: 1992; 76-77.





          iv.  Leonard, Paul. "Countdown to Destruction". 'Fatima Crusader':


               10-11/90; 14.





          v.   See, for instance:





               'Soviet Military Power': 1988.





               Broder,   John.   "Underground   Shelters  Built  for  Soviet


               Leaders". 'Los Angeles Times': 4/30/88: I,16.





          vi.  See, for instance:





               Parks,  Michael.  "Food Shipments Trapped in  Web  of  Soviet


               Inefficiency". 'Los Angeles Times': 12/11/90; A6.





               Blitz,  James.  "Hunger in the Heart of Plenty".  'The Sunday


               Times': 12/9/90.





          vii. Epstein,  Edward.  'Deception:  The Invisible War Between the


               KGB and the CIA'.  Simon and Schuster;  New York,  NY:  1989;


               241.








     For an overview of Soviet strategy for surprise nuclear war, see:





     Douglass,  Joseph D.,  Jr.  'Soviet Strategy for Nuclear  War'.  Hoover


     Institute Press; Stanford, CA: 1979.





     Van Cleave, Dr.  William R. "Soviet Strategic Nuclear Forces and Goals:


     Deception  and  Surprise".  From:  'Mesmerized  By  The  Bear' Sleeper,


     Raymond (ed).  Dodd, Mead, & Co.  New York, NY: 1987; 89-109.








     For an overall idea of how and why the military powers of the East- led


     by Soviet Russia- may be pursuing  a  grand  strategy  to  deceive  and


     militarily conquer the West, see:





     Beichman,  Arnold.  'The  Long  Pretense:  Soviet Treaty Diplomacy from


     Lenin to Gorbachev'.  Transaction Publishers; New Brunswick, NJ: 1991.





     Cline,  Ray (ed).  'Behind the Smile Are  Teeth  of  Iron'.  US  Global


     Strategy Council; Washington, DC: 1989.





     Daily,  Brian  and Patrick Parker (eds).  'Soviet Strategic Deception'.


     Lexington Books; Lexingtion, MA: 1987.





     Douglass,  Joseph D.,  Jr.  'Soviet Strategy for Nuclear  War'.  Hoover


     Institute Press; Stanford, CA: 1979.





     Epstein, Edward Jay. 'Deception: The Secret War Between the KGB and the


     CIA'.  Simon & Schuster; New York, NY: 1989.





     Golitsyn,  Anatoliy.  'New  Lies  for  Old:  The  Communist Strategy of


     Deception and Disinformation'. Dodd, Mead; New York, NY: 1984.





     Kintner, William.  'Soviet Global Strategy'.  Hero Books;  Fairfax, VA:


     1987.





     Kintner,  William  and Harriet Scott (eds).  'The Nuclear Revolution in


     Soviet Military Affairs'.  University of Oklahoma  Press;  Norman,  OK:


     1968.





     Sleeper,  Raymond (ed).  'Mesmerized By The Bear'.  Dodd,  Mead,  & Co.


     New York, NY: 1987.





 3.  "A Slow Slide Toward War". 'Newsweek': 7/2/90; 29.





 4.  Information  compiled  from  various  news  sources.   For  a  thorough


     analysis of Saddam's military going into the Gulf War, see:





     Darwish,  Adel and Gregory Alexander.  'Unholy Babylon'.  St.  Martin's


     Press.  New York, NY: 1991; 85-178.





 5.  Kondracke, Morton. "Saddamnation". 'The New Republic': 5/7/90; 10-11.





 6.  "The Guns of August". 'The New Republic': 9/3/90; 9.





 7.  "A Slow Slide Toward War".





 8.  Kondracke; 10.





 9.  Bulloch, John and Harvey Morris.  'Saddam's War'.  Faber & Faber,  Inc.


     Winchester, MA: 1991; 1-2.





 10.  Bulloch and Morris; 102.





 11.  Bulloch and Morris- also see:





      "Standing up to Saddam Hussein". 'Economist': 7/28/90; 11-12.





 12.  Kruzel,  Joseph  (ed).  '1991-92  American Defense Annual'.  Lexington


      Books; Lexington, MA: 1992; 1.





 13.  "The Guns of August".





 14.  For a synopsis of Resolution 660, see: Darwish and Alexander; 308.





 15.  For a thorough "Diary of the Gulf Crisis", see: Darwish and Alexander;


      299-307.





 16.  Bulloch and Morris; 5.





 17.  Darwish and Alexander; 299-307.





 18.  Kruzel; 107.





 19.  Kruzel; 1.





 20.  "US Says Early Air Attack Caught Iraq Off Guard".  'New  York  Times'.


      1/18/91; A10.





 21.  Grier,   Peter.   "Iraq's  Chemical  Weapons  Found  to  be   Potent".


      'Christian Science Monitor': 1/23/92; 1.





      Also  from  Associated  Press  (AP)  reports  taken off Dow Jones News


      Retrieval on April 19, 1991.





 22.  For a thorough examination of Iraqi development and usage of  chemical


      weapons, see: Darwish and Alexander; 101-114.





 23.  Grier; 1.





 24.  Darwish and Alexander; 112.





 25.  "The Fury of Desert Storm". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91; 74.





 26.  Tyler, Patrick E.  "Iraq's War Toll Estimated by U.S.;  100,000 Killed


      and 300,000 hurt in Persian Gulf cited  as  tentative  figures".  'New


      York Times': 6/5/91; A5.





 27.  "The 100-Hour War". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91; 16.





 28.  "The 100-Hour War".





 29.  "U.N.  Survey  Calls  Iraq's  War Damage Near-Apocalyptic".  'New York


      Times': 3/22/91; A1.





 30.  "The 100-Hour War".





 31.  "Intelligence  in  a  World  of  Change  (Satellites   and   Humans)".


      'Government Executive' (serial):  National Journal, Inc.;  Washington,


      DC: 3/92.





 32.  For a thorough examination of Iraq's nuclear program, see: Darwish and


      Alexander; 178-196.





 33.  Widely reported in the summer of 1991.





      Meisler, Stanley.  "300 Iraq SCUDs Missing, U.N.  Team Reports".  'Los


      Angeles Times': 11/2/91; A10.





      (also from CNN news reports)





 34.  Epstein,  Edward  Jay.  "Virtual  Ally:  What's the Soviet Game in the


      Gulf?". 'The New Republic': 9/3/90; 19-20.





 35.  Bulloch and Morris;  20.





      -the Soviets also profitted from their huge gold, silver,  and diamond


      exports,  because  precious  metals  and gems went up in value sharply


      with the Crisis.





 36.  Epstein; 19, 20.





 37.  Kondracke; 12.





 38.  McAlvany,  Don.  "Middle East Aflame:  Oil Wars in the Persian  Gulf".


      'McAlvany Intelligence Advisor' (serial). Phoenix, AZ: 8/90.





      Reprinted in:





      'The Fatima Crusader' (serial). Constable, NY: 10-11/90; 5-10.





 39.  Morris,   Robert.   'Our  Globe  Under  Siege   III'.   Better   Baby;


      Philadelphia, PA: 1988; 182.





      Referenced in:  'McAlvany Intelligence Advisor' (see note 35).





      Specifically,  Morris  quoted  columnist  Paul  Scott who listed eight


      facilities which included:





      1)  A  major  naval  facility at Umn Qasr at the mouth of the Shaat-al


          Arab which  flows  into  the  Persian  Gulf.  This  base  includes


          maintenance  facilities  for  ships  and  basing for equipment and


          ammunition.  There are also boarding ramps for Hovercraft that can


          transport naval infantry from the base.





      2)  The naval installations and facilities at Zubior  and  al  Qurnah,


          the  former  on  a body of water below the Euphrates River and the


          latter on the Tigris.  Both ports can service Soviet warships.





      3)  There are air bases at Sulaymaniyah in the northeast mosul  in  the


          north central sector of the country.





 40.  Darwish and Alexander; 136.





 41.  "Moscow  Fears  Iraq  Won't  Pay Back Big Debt".  'Oil & Gas Journal':


      9/17/90; 28.





 42.  Rosenthal, A.  M.  "Why Moscow Wants to Save Saddam".





      Printed in:





      Sifry,  Micah and  Christopher  Cerf  (eds).  'The  Gulf  War  Reader:


      History, Documents, Opinions'.  Times Books; New York, NY: 1991; 346.





 43.  Mann, Paul. "Judging the Soviets in the Gulf: Are They as Weak as They


      Look?". 'Aviation Week & Space Technology': 12/3/90; 24.





 44.  "Iraq Hints at Flexibility;  Allies Focus Bombardment".  'Gannett News


      Service': 2/12/91.





 45.  Howard,  Michael and Robert Lovett.  "The Burdens of  Victory".  'U.S.


      News & World Report': 7/13/91; 48-49.





 46.  Darwish and Alexander; 283.





 47.  Mann.





 48.  Bulloch and Morris; 20.





 49.  Private source.





 50.  For instance, see:





      Sterling, Claire. 'The Terror Network: The Secret War of International


      Terrorism'.  Berkley Books; New York, NY: 1982.





 51.  Epstein; 20.





 52.  Kondracke; 10.





 53.  McAlvany.





 54.  Epstein.





 55.  Epstein.





 56.  Leonard, Paul.  "Countdown to Destruction". 'The Fatima Crusader': 10-


      11/90; 13.





 57.  "Iraq Hints at Flexibility; Allies Focus Bombardment".





 58.  'The   American   Sentinel'   (serial).   Phillips   Publishing   Co.;


      Washington, DC: 8/90.





      Quoted in: "Newspage". 'The Fatima Crusader': 10-11/90; 11.





 59.  Walte,  Juan.  "U.S.  Tried to Nab Soviets Aiding Iraq".  'USA Today':


      3/19/91; A4.





      Also see:





      "Some Secrets  of  Gulf  War  Might  Never  Be  Told".  'Gannett  News


      Service': 3/19/91.





      "Iraq Hints at Peace Effort;  Demands End to Air War; U.S.  Cautious".


      'USA Today': 2/13/91; A1.





 60.  Many people have indicated a belief that Western intelligence must  be


      aware  of  the  potential for a Soviet grand deception or deception in


      the Gulf as is spelt out in my views.  However,  this a  false  belief


      premised  on  ignorant  and irrational faith.  If Western intelligence


      had any suspicion of a deception,  the West would never  have  dropped


      its  guard  the  way  it  has- particularly against a nuclear surprise


      attack.  Every indication is  that  Western  'intelligence'  has  been


      outsmarted  by  the 'intelligencia' of the East.  To better understand


      how this could be so, see:





      Epstein,  Edward Jay.  'Deception:  The Secret War Between the KGB and


      the CIA'.  Simon & Schuster; New York, NY: 1989.





      Golitsyn,  Anatoliy.  'New  Lies  for  Old:  The Communist Strategy of


      Deception and Disinformation'. Dodd, Mead; New York, NY: 1984.





      It should be noted  here  that,  if  the  Soviets  have  succeeded  in


      misleading us, it is not due so much to their deceptions as to our own


      self-deceptions.  Lenin  once  said  that the best way to overcome the


      West was to:  'tell them what they want to hear'.  It seems  Gorbachev


      may have carried this logic one step further to:  'show them what they


      want to see'.  The point is that Westerners have proven time and  time


      again  that they will 'hear what they want to hear' and 'see what they


      want to see' regardless of the truth of the matter.  In  other  words,


      our  selfish  fears,  pride,  and  desires,  mislead us into accepting


      illusions- lies- rather than reality and the  truth.  Hitler  realized


      this  and  used  it to his advantage resulting in World War II and the


      virtual loss of free-Europe.  Now it appears history may be  repeating


      itself  and  the consequence will be World War III and the loss of the


      free-world.





 61.  See note 2.





 62.  Most  of these are readily apparent points- for specific examples see:


      Howard; 44.  Also see:





      Schoenfeld,  Gabriel.  "The Loser of the Gulf  War  Is...  the  Soviet


      Military." (editorial) 'Wall Street Journal': 3/19/91; A24.





 63.  That the Soviets are planning to invade Europe later on would  explain


      why they left large stocks of ammunition in Eastern Europe in the wake


      of their military pull-out.





      See:  Kruzel, 222.





 64.  Birnbaum, Jesse.  "How Many Wars Can the U.S. Fight?". 'Time'. 3/4/91;


      38-39.





 65.  Birnbaum; 38.





 66.  Montgomery, Paul L. "NATO Is Planning to Cut U.S.  Forces in Europe by


      50%". 'New York Times': 5/29/91; A1.





 67.  "Spirit  of  CFE  Treaty  Disappears  East  of the Urals".  'Financial


      Times': 11/15/90; (European News), 2.





      "A Factor in the Soviet Food Crisis". 'New York Times': 1/4/91; A4.





 68.  Mendelsohn,  Jack.  "Just How Deceitful are the Soviets?"  (editorial)


      'Wall Street Journal': 2/26/91; A15.





 69.  "A Glimpse at the Troubled Soviet Army".  'U.S.  News & World Report':


      12/17/90; 54.





 70.  In  late  September  of  1991,  George  Bush  ordered  that  the  U.S.


      strategic  bomber  fleet  be  stood-down  and  dismantled and that all


      Minuteman II ICBM's be deactivated.  Furthermore,  he  announced  that


      all tactical nuclear weapons were to be pulled off U.S.  naval vessels


      and 80 percent of American nuclear defenses in Western Europe were  to


      be removed.  These goals are today complete (completion date:  July 1,


      1992).  This information is widely available in popular press reports.





      For a report on how America's guard against  a  Soviet  nuclear  sneak


      attack has been significantly lowered, see:





      "Why  America  New Sentinel Works Only a 40-Hour Week".  'U.S.  News &


      World Report': 5/20/91.





 71.  Comments following the Gulf War.  'The New York Times': 3/3/91; E2.





                *          *          *          *          *








                                  REFERENCES





 Beichman, Arnold. 'The Long Pretense: Soviet Treaty Diplomacy from Lenin to


     Gorbachev'.  Transaction Publishers; New Brunswick, NJ: 1991.





 Blitz, James. "Hunger in the Heart of Plenty". 'The Sunday Times': 12/9/90.





 Broder, John. "Underground Shelters Built for Soviet Leaders". 'Los Angeles


     Times': 4/30/88.





 Bulloch,  John and Harvey Morris.  'Saddam's  War'.  Faber  &  Faber,  Inc.


     Winchester, MA: 1991.





 Cline, Ray (ed).  'Behind the Smile Are Teeth of Iron'.  US Global Strategy


     Council; Washington, DC: 1988.





 Daily,  Brian and  Patrick  Parker  (eds).  'Soviet  Strategic  Deception'.


     Lexington Books; Lexingtion, MA: 1987.





 Darwish,  Adel  and  Gregory  Alexander.  'Unholy  Babylon'.  St.  Martin's


     Press.  New York, NY: 1991.





 Douglass,  Joseph  D.,  Jr.  'Soviet  Strategy  for  Nuclear  War'.  Hoover


     Institute Press; Stanford, CA: 1979.





 Epstein,  Edward  Jay.  'Deception:  The Secret War Between the KGB and the


     CIA'.  Simon & Schuster; New York, NY: 1989.





 Epstein, Edward Jay.  "Virtual Ally:  What's the Soviet Game in the Gulf?".


     'The New Republic': 9/3/90.





 "A Factor in the Soviet Food Crisis". 'New York Times': 1/4/91.





 "The Fury of Desert Storm". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91.





 Golitsyn, Anatoliy.  'New Lies for Old: The Communist Strategy of Deception


     and Disinformation'.  Dodd, Mead; New York, NY: 1984.





 Grier,  Peter.  "Iraq's Chemical Weapons Found to  be  Potent".  'Christian


     Science Monitor': 1/23/92.





 "The Guns of August". 'The New Republic': 9/3/90.





 Howard, Michael and Robert Lovett.  "The Burdens of Victory". 'U.S.  News &


     World Report': 7/13/91.





 "The 100-Hour War". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91.





 "Intelligence in a World of Change (Satellites  and  Humans)".  'Government


     Executive': 3/92.





 "Iraq  Hints  at  Flexibility;  Allies  Focus  Bombardment".  'Gannett News


     Service': 2/12/91.





 "Iraq Hints at Peace Effort; Demands End to Air War; U.S.  Cautious".  'USA


     Today': 2/13/91.





 Kintner, William. 'Soviet Global Strategy'.  Hero Books; Fairfax, VA: 1987.





 Kintner, William and Harriet Scott (eds). 'The Nuclear Revolution in Soviet


     Military Affairs'.  University of Oklahoma Press; Norman, OK: 1968.





 Kondracke, Morton. "Saddamnation". 'The New Republic': 5/7/90.





 Kruzel,  Joseph (ed).  '1991-92 American Defense Annual'.  Lexington Books;


     Lexington, MA: 1992.





 Leonard, Paul.  "Countdown to Destruction". 'The Fatima Crusader' (serial).


     Constable, NY: 10-11/90.





 Mann,  Paul.  "Judging the Soviets in the Gulf:  Are They as Weak  as  They


     Look?". 'Aviation Week & Space Technology': 12/3/90.





 McAlvany,  Don.  "Middle  East  Aflame:  Oil  Wars  in  the  Persian Gulf".


     'McAlvany Intelligence Advisor' (serial). Phoenix, AZ: 8/90.





 Mendelsohn, Jack. "Just How Deceitful are the Soviets?" (editorial).  'Wall


     Street Journal': 2/26/91.





 Meisler,  Stanley.  "300 Iraq  SCUDs  Missing,  U.N.  Team  Reports".  'Los


     Angeles Times': 11/2/91.





 Montgomery,  Paul  L.  "NATO  Is  Planning to Cut U.S.  Forces in Europe by


     50%". 'New York Times': 5/29/91.





 Morris,  Robert.  'Our Globe Under Siege III'.  Better Baby;  Philadelphia,


     PA: 1987.





 "Moscow Fears Iraq Won't Pay Back Big Debt". 'Oil & Gas Journal': 9/17/90.





 "Newspage". 'The Fatima Crusader' (serial).  Constable, NY: 10-11/90.





 Parks,  Michael.  "Food  Shipments  Trapped in Web of Soviet Inefficiency".


     'Los Angeles Times': 12/11/90.





 Schoenfeld, Gabriel. "The Loser of the Gulf War Is...  the Soviet Military"


     (editorial). 'Wall Street Journal'.





 Sifry,  Micah  and Christopher Cerf (eds).  'The Gulf War Reader:  History,


     Documents, Opinions'.  Times Books; New York, NY: 1991.





 Sleeper, Raymond (ed).  'Mesmerized By The Bear'.  Dodd,  Mead,  & Co.  New


     York, NY: 1987.





 "A Slow Slide Toward War". 'Newsweek': 7/2/90.





 "Some  Secrets  of  Gulf  War  Might Never Be Told".  Gannett News Service.


     3/19/91.





 'Soviet Military Power'.  US Department of Defense; Washington, DC.





 "Spirit of CFE Treaty Disappears East of  the  Urals".  'Financial  Times':


        11/15/90; (European News).





 Sterling,  Claire.  'The  Terror  Network:  The Secret War of International


     Terrorism'.  Berkley Books; New York, NY: 1982.


 Tyler,  Patrick E.  "Iraq's War Toll Estimated by U.S.;  100,000 Killed and


     300,000  hurt  in  Persian Gulf cited as tentative figures".  'New York


     Times': 6/5/91.

 "U.N.  Survey Calls Iraq's War Damage Near-Apocalyptic".  'New York Times':


     3/22/91.


 "U.S.  Says  Early  Air  Attack  Caught Iraq Off Guard".  'New York Times'.


     1/18/91.


 Walte,  Juan.  "U.S.  Tried to  Nab  Soviets  Aiding  Iraq".  'USA  Today'.


     3/19/91.