***THE COMING EAST ASIAN CRISIS***
***EAST ASIA ALERT UPDATE***
By J. Adams
February 26th, 1996
http://Syninfo.com/J/
USSR, 3rd World Countries & US
In the wake of the February 19th new moon that marked the
beginning of the Chinese new year, there are urgent signs that war is
about to erupt throughout East Asia. As was explained in my initial
"East Asia Alert", the two key flashpoints are Taiwan and Korea.
First off, China has massed 150,000 troops along with tanks,
warships and warplanes just across from Taiwan supposedly in
preparation for large-scale wargames. Western analysts are not too
concerned, since they believe China is planning such wargames in order
to intimidate Taiwenese voters and influence the upcoming March 23rd
presidential election in Taiwan. The reality, however, is that
Beijing is likely planning far more than just war-"games". Since
Taiwan is mainly anticipating politically motivated military
exercises, China is able to mobilize for an attack against Taiwan
while maintaining the element of surprise. While an all-out Chinese
effort to invade Taiwan might not be in the offing, one should expect
some sort of limited Chinese strike against Taiwan in the near-future.
A plausible scenario is that China will overrun one or more of the
smaller Taiwanese islands located near the Chinese mainland.
There are two major reasons why China is likely planning military
action against Taiwan. Ostensibly such action will appear to be an
effort by Beijing to stop short the onging Taiwanese drive for
democracy and independence. Furthermore, it might be reported that
Chinese military aggression stems from a power struggle in Beijing
associated with the failing health and/or death of China's aged ruler,
Deng Xiaoping. In reality, however, Chinese action against Taiwan is
part of a larger, multi-year strategy being employed by the
authoritarian military powers of the East that comprise what used to
be called the "communist world". According to this strategy, which
was substantially revealed by KGB defector Anatoliy Golitsyn in books
like "New Lies For Old" (1984), the breakup and internal conflicts of
the communist world have been a facade geared to mislead the West by
minimizing the perceived communist threat. Now that we are lulled
into a totally false sense of security, a "One-Clenched Fist" strategy
is going to be employed where China and Russia, as well as many of the
other communist military powers-of-old, are going to suddenly come
together in waging an all-out war against an ill-prepared capitalist
West. Since the multi-year plan to destroy the West is being carried-
out according to astrology, now is the time to expect war in at least
East Asia. With the Chinese lunar new year that started with the
February 19th new moon, the "Year of the Fire Rat" has been underway.
To Chinese astrologers, this means war. Thus, Beijing has received
its astrological signal to ignite East Asia as part of the approaching
all-out war between the communist East ("of old") and the capitalist
West.
As part of the coming East Asian crisis, North Korea should soon
stir a new conflict with South Korea. A major signal that something
is about to occur in Korea is that Pyongyang recently banned private
phone calls by top Party and military officials. This suggests that a
power struggle is about to be staged in North Korea that should
presage a second Korean War. This comes just in time for "Perigoke",
the period between the end of winter's last reserves and the first
barley harvest. This is when a famine in North Korea is most likely
to occur such that Pyongyang supposedly resorts to military
adventurism to quell internal unrest. In other words, since the North
is using a food crisis as a false pretext for political instability
and an attack against the South, now is the time when Pyongyang might
act.
Importantly, one should keep in mind what the coming East Asian
crisis is really all about. As is implied by my other articles on the
coming "Korean Diversion", the huge military crisis I'm expecting in
East Asia is simply to divert U.S. military forces into the Far East
in order to open the way for an Arab jihad, or holy war, against
Israel along with a massive Russian onslaught to the South, i.e., the
Middle East. Since the U.S. will be preoccupied in East Asia, it
won't be possible for Washington to come to the defense of Israel.
Thus a global nuclear war will be set off by "the Jews"...
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Reuters World Service
February 18, 1996
"Beware the Chinese Year of the Fire Rat."
If you thought 1995 was a pig of a year, stop reading now. Chinese
geomancers say the Year of the Rat already looks set to be one better
forgotten. The problem, says fortune-teller Raymond Lo, is the world
is entering the Year of the Fire Rat and "about to fall under the
influence of diametrically opposing elements -- fire and water. There
could be turbulence, trouble...perhaps even a war. "
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Reuters
February 25, 1996
"Pro-Beijing paper says troops on move near Taiwan."
A Beijing-backed newspaper in Hong Kong said on Monday that China
was actively preparing for fresh large-scale military exercises near
Taiwan.
Ta Kung Pao said troops of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) were
mobilised during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday last week in
readiness for a large-scale exercise in the Taiwan Strait between
mainland China and the island of Taiwan.
The Ta Kung Pao report follows recent statements from Taiwan and
the United States that a major PLA military exercise appeared imminent
near Taiwan, the third set of big exercises in half a year.
The paper said the mobilisation had made air traffic restrictions
necessary and had delayed some commercial flights at Fuzhou city
airport, on the coast opposite Taiwan.
It quoted people in Fuzhou as saying a military exercise would be a
warning against independence moves in Taiwan and conducive to
reunification.
China has regarded Taiwan as a renegade province since the
Nationalists took refuge there after losing a civil war to the
communists on the mainland in 1949.
Both sides publicly espouse reunification although on different
terms. But China has said it is convinced President Lee Teng-hui is
secretly working to make Taiwan a formally independent state.
Lee, the front-runner in Taiwan's first direct presidential
elections on March 23, has criticised the mainland for trying to sway
the vote through its exercises.
Tension has run high since last June when Lee made an unofficial
U.S. visit, prompting Beijing to stage military exercises and to
threaten to retake the island by force.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Agence France Presse
February 22, 1996
"Tanks rumbled through streets of Fujian province."
Tanks rumbled through the streets of China's Fujian province and
kilometers of military installations have spread along its coastline
facing Taiwan, according to the Chinese-backed Wen Wei Po newspaper
here Thursday.
Its account coincides with earlier reports that China was planning
large-scale military exercises in Fujian and the Taiwan Strait ahead
of direct presidential elections in Taiwan scheduled for March 23. But
the paper did not confirm that such a drill was to take place.
Wen Wei Po reported that civilian airports in the province,
including that of Fuzhou, the provincial capital, were closed from
time to time to allow military aircraft to take off and land,
disrupting scheduled flights.
The paper quoted passengers as saying that "for the sake of the
unity of the motherland" they had not complained about flight delays.
The paper said "many unusual phenomenon" occurred in the province
before the Chinese lunar new year celebrations, which began Monday.
"Military vehicles and tanks rumbled through the streets" and "along
the shores, there were tens and tens of kilometers of military
installations."
Traditional visits by top party and government officials to the
People's Liberation Army in the province during the Lunar New Year
were suspended this year, the report said.
But the newspaper said that despite the unsual events life went on
as usual and there was no tension in the province.
Another Beijing-backed daily Ta Kung Pao in a report from Pingtan,
Fujian's largest island in the Taiwan strait, said Taiwanese
businessmen had spent the new year holiday there.
This contradicted a report in the independent Sing Tao Daily News
on February 15 which said the ports of Pingtan, Nanzhong and Tung-ao
had been closed and placed off limits for calls by fishing boats from
Taiwan.
Taiwan's Defence Minister Chiang Chung-ling said last week that
China was massing 150,000 troops in Fujian for the exercises which the
Taiwanese see as aimed at intimidating voters ahead of the first
direct presidential elections on the island scheduled for March 23.
The exercises would be the third in a series begun shortly after
Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui visited the United States in June,
angering Beijing.
China saw the trip as a covert attempt to campaign for Taiwan
independence, a move it said would trigger an invasion of the
nationalist island.
Beijing has viewed Taiwan as a rebel province since the end of a
civil war in 1949.
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***THE COMING EAST ASIAN CRISIS***
By J. Adams
February 13th, 1996
A more comprehensive article will be forthcoming, but in the
meantime I thought I would post some preliminary conclusions I have
reached from an examination of current affairs in China and East Asia.
While I have been regularly warning of how North Korea's large-
scale military build-up and exercises toward the South are likely a
warning sign of an imminent invasion, there is reason to believe that
this is but a secondary concern of a far larger crisis looming for all
of East Asia. Specifically, in the same way a power struggle
associated with a leadership transfer is being engineered in Pyongyang
to cover a North Korean invasion of South Korea, the same sort of
political cover for military adventurism is likely being used by North
Korea's massive military ally-of-old: China. As is touched upon in
the articles below, the West is receiving signals, most likely
intentionally, that China's leader Deng Xiaoping is dead and party
leader and anointed heir, Jiang Zemin, is now seeking to establish
control. As part of gaining control of the Red Giant, Zemin is
supposedly seeking to win the backing of military hardliners who want
to see a more aggressive China. Consequently, the stage might be set
for a major Chinese military action, possibly against Taiwan, in the
days or weeks ahead. And this, in turn, might be a prelude to a North
Korean invasion of South Korea.
All in all, East Asia might soon explode. Regardless of how all-
important such a crisis might seem, however, keep in mind that it is
all most likely part of a strategic diversion as explained in my
articles on the approaching global war.
So you can begin to see what I'm talking about, I welcome you to
read the following set of articles:
Deutsche Presse-Agentur
February 7, 1996
"Sabre-rattling turns Taiwan into Asia's new crisis region"
By Andreas Landwehr
With China preparing to launch massive military exercises in
Fujian province opposite Taiwan on Saturday, a new crisis region has
suddenly emerged in Asia.
At a stroke, the status quo in the Taiwan Straits, with which
everyone seemed to have been relatively comfortable, no longer
applies. Instead every one is suddenly talking about military
manoeuvres, rocket attacks and invasion plans.
The new atmosphere has a number of sources within China: a new
wave of nationalism, threatening gestures, powerful generals,
uncertainty over the succession after the death of senior leader Deng
Xiaoping, perhaps even distraction from the country's internal
problems.
Fear of war has become an almost palpable phenomenon as the Asian
rumour mill grind into action and sensationalist stories appear on a
daily basis as Hong Kong and Taiwanese newspapers fight to maintain
their share of a tough market.
"People are shaking at the knees," said a traveller returning from
Taiwan on Wednesday.
Taiwanese were shocked Wednesday morning to hear a report that
China was planning to begin its manouvres on Saturday, with the
intention of demonstrating its ability to use force to win back the
island republic.
The anxiety is as real as the threat is speculative. The U.S. has
been asked whether it would come to Taiwan's aid. But Defence
Secretary William Perry has not been to calm the Taiwanese on that
score.
Perry has not offered Taiwan any security guarantees but simply
referred to the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 stating that the U.S.
considers "any effort to settle the status of Taiwan by force a threat
to peace in the Western Pacific area and of great concern".
Perry said that during his visit to Beijing last November Pentagon
representative Joseph Nye was surprised to be asked how the U.S. would
react to a threat against Taiwan.
His answer, according to Perry, was: "We do not know what we would
do, because it's going to depend on the circumstances, and you don't
know what we would do."
Washington has described the ambiguity of Nye's answer as a
"useful deterrent for either side".
But to Chinese ears, it must sound more like a display of weakness
and deliberate reservation. Amid the uncertainty, however, one thing
is sure: there is a lot at stake for China's military and political
leaders.
Not least at risk is the country's current economic success. Any
armed conflict would badly damage the Chinese economy and probably
destroy the future of Hong Kong as a financial and economic
metropolis.
If the West believes the Chinese would not be willing to gamble
away such prosperity, concern remains that Beijing will succeed in
influencing the Taiwanese presidential elections on March 23.
By stirring up fears of war, China is clearly bringing pressure to
bear on Taiwanese not to vote for either President Lee or his rival
Peng Ming-min.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Financial Times
January 31, 1996
"Old Clothes"
There are so few public clues to the thinking of the Chinese
Communist party that the fashion statement carries as much weight as
the politburo communique. In recent days, Jiang Zemin, party leader
and anointed heir of Deng Xiaoping, has been gracing public meetings
in an off-khaki Mao suit. Both the colour and the cut of Mr Jiang's
outfit provide important hints about the shifting strength of factions
and the direction of policy.
Khaki is a concession to the People's Liberation Army, whose
support is essential to the durability of a Chinese leader. And the
high-collar is favoured by elderly conservatives, whose retro taste in
clothes matches a political philosophy steeped in the past glories of
the Communist party.
Strategic changes of clothes have marked the turn of political
trends over two decades of Chinese reform. In the cruelty and chaos of
the Cultural Revolution, there was no choice. The western suit was
evidence of decadence and an invitation to be purged. What westerners
know as the Mao suit, which Chinese call the zhongshanfu in honour of
an earlier revolutionary, Sun Yat-sen, was standard issue for safety-
conscious party leaders. In the 1980s, when confidence was growing,
leading reformers were willing to take the risk of wearing a lounge
suit. The symbolism was obvious to all. Outside the leadership
compound, Chinese began experiments with loud ties and wool-blend
fabrics. Hemlines now rise and fall with the tide of secular fashion.
But the sartorial struggle goes on within the Communist party.
After the Tiananmen tragedy in 1989, Mao-suited conservatives
dominated. At the onset of other campaigns against 'evil winds',
'spiritual pollution' and 'bourgeois liberalisation', reformers found
it convenient to return to the wardrobe and prove their political
purity by stealing their opponents' clothes.
Apart from the traditional tunic, Mr Jiang, by Chinese standards a
middle-of-the-roader, has acquired the rhetorical accoutrements of
conservatism. Suddenly, he is alarmed by 'cultural trash' and
insistent that the country not 'sacrifice ideology' for economic
growth.
There is obviously conflict in the Communist party. It could be
that unreconstructed conservatives have mustered the numbers to
threaten economic policy. It could be that Mr Deng is very close to
death and the succession brawl has begun. China remains unpredictable
and, as the next emperor, Mr Jiang has good reason to worry about his
clothes.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Agence France Presse
January 31, 1996
"Deng missing from TV tributes"
Chinese patriarch Deng Xiaoping was surprisingly missing from a
list of top officials to pay tribute Wednesday after the death of a
veteran communist leader.
The list was given prominence on the main evening news when the
announcement of the death of Lieutenant General Chen Xianhui was made.
Chen died in hospital on January 10 aged 83, the television said.
President Jiang Zemin and nearly every other member of the old
guard within the communist party was quoted as having gone to pay
respects to Chen on his death bed or sent a message of condolences.
The 91-year-old Deng, who has not been seen in public for almost
two years, would normally have been expected to be among them.
Jiang was top of the list given, followed by Peng Zhen, 93, an
orthodox ideologue and the oldest of the so-called "immortals" known
as the founders of communist China. Deng is also among the four
surviving immortals.
Also named were General Liu Huaqinq, vice chairman of the central
military commission, General Yang Baibin and his brother General Yang
Shangkun, 88, another party "immortal."
Chinese television also cited the names of party conservative Song
Ping and former national people's congress speaker Wan Li.
Deng should have been on the list as he had strongly courted the
former political commissar for the Beijing region, before and after
the founding of communist China in 1949, analysts said.
But Bo Yibo, the 87-year-old fourth surviving "immortal," was not
mentioned, observers said. Bo was never close to the army.
Deng was last seen in public in February 1994 for what had become a
traditional television appearance for the Chinese New Year. He seemed
then to be in a frail state and there are frequent reports that the
authorities are about to announce Deng's death.
Meanwhile, Jiang has strengthened his hold over the state and army
and is seen as the likely new patriarch after Deng's eventual death.
Beijing accuses Lee of attempting to win international recognition
for Taiwan while Peng clearly backs Taiwanese independence. The
Chinese leadership wants to persuade voters in the island republic to
vote for a candidate that would avoid any confrontation with their
powerful neighbour across the water.
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