***EAST ASIA ALERT UPDATE***

                              By J. Adams

                          February 26th, 1996


                    USSR, 3rd World Countries & US

    In  the  wake  of  the  February  19th  new  moon  that marked the

beginning of the Chinese new year, there are urgent signs that war  is

about to erupt throughout East Asia.  As was explained in  my  initial

"East Asia Alert", the two key flashpoints are Taiwan and Korea.

    First  off,  China  has  massed  150,000  troops along with tanks,

warships  and  warplanes  just  across  from  Taiwan   supposedly   in

preparation  for  large-scale  wargames.  Western analysts are not too

concerned, since they believe China is planning such wargames in order

to intimidate Taiwenese voters and influence the upcoming  March  23rd

presidential  election  in  Taiwan.  The  reality,  however,  is  that

Beijing is likely planning  far  more  than  just  war-"games".  Since

Taiwan   is   mainly   anticipating   politically  motivated  military

exercises,  China is able to mobilize for  an  attack  against  Taiwan

while maintaining the element of surprise.  While an  all-out  Chinese

effort to invade Taiwan might not be in the offing,  one should expect

some sort of limited Chinese strike against Taiwan in the near-future.

A plausible scenario is that China will overrun one  or  more  of  the

smaller Taiwanese islands located near the Chinese mainland.

    There are two major reasons why China is likely planning  military

action  against  Taiwan.  Ostensibly  such action will appear to be an

effort by Beijing  to  stop  short  the  onging  Taiwanese  drive  for

democracy  and  independence.  Furthermore,  it might be reported that

Chinese military aggression stems from a  power  struggle  in  Beijing

associated with the failing health and/or death of China's aged ruler,

Deng Xiaoping.  In reality, however,  Chinese action against Taiwan is

part   of  a  larger,   multi-year  strategy  being  employed  by  the

authoritarian military powers of the East that comprise what  used  to

be  called  the "communist world".  According to this strategy,  which

was substantially revealed by KGB defector Anatoliy Golitsyn in  books

like "New Lies For Old" (1984),  the breakup and internal conflicts of

the communist world have been a facade geared to mislead the  West  by

minimizing  the  perceived  communist  threat.  Now that we are lulled

into a totally false sense of security, a "One-Clenched Fist" strategy

is going to be employed where China and Russia, as well as many of the

other communist military powers-of-old,  are going  to  suddenly  come

together  in  waging an all-out war against an ill-prepared capitalist

West.  Since the multi-year plan to destroy the West is being carried-

out according to astrology,  now is the time to expect war in at least

East  Asia.  With  the  Chinese  lunar  new year that started with the

February 19th new moon,  the "Year of the Fire Rat" has been underway.

To  Chinese astrologers,  this means war.  Thus,  Beijing has received

its astrological signal to ignite East Asia as part of the approaching

all-out war between the communist East ("of old") and  the  capitalist


    As  part of the coming East Asian crisis,  North Korea should soon

stir a new conflict with South Korea.  A major signal  that  something

is  about  to occur in Korea is that Pyongyang recently banned private

phone calls by top Party and military officials.  This suggests that a

power struggle is about to  be  staged  in  North  Korea  that  should

presage  a second Korean War.  This comes just in time for "Perigoke",

the period between the end of winter's last  reserves  and  the  first

barley  harvest.  This  is when a famine in North Korea is most likely

to  occur  such  that  Pyongyang  supposedly   resorts   to   military

adventurism to quell internal unrest.  In other words, since the North

is  using  a  food crisis as a false pretext for political instability

and an attack against the South,  now is the time when Pyongyang might


    Importantly,  one  should  keep in mind what the coming East Asian

crisis is really all about.  As is implied by my other articles on the

coming "Korean Diversion",  the huge military crisis I'm expecting  in

East  Asia is simply to divert U.S.  military forces into the Far East

in order to open the way for an  Arab  jihad,  or  holy  war,  against

Israel along with a massive Russian onslaught to the South,  i.e., the

Middle East.  Since the U.S.  will be preoccupied  in  East  Asia,  it

won't  be  possible  for  Washington to come to the defense of Israel.

Thus a global nuclear war will be set off by "the Jews"...


                         Reuters World Service

                           February 18, 1996

              "Beware the Chinese Year of the Fire Rat."

   If you thought 1995 was a pig of a year, stop reading now.  Chinese

geomancers say the Year of the Rat already looks set to be one  better

forgotten.  The problem,  says fortune-teller Raymond Lo, is the world

is entering the Year of the Fire Rat and  "about  to  fall  under  the

influence of diametrically opposing elements -- fire and water.  There

could be turbulence, trouble...perhaps even a war. "



                           February 25, 1996

         "Pro-Beijing paper says troops on move near Taiwan."

   A  Beijing-backed  newspaper in Hong Kong said on Monday that China

was actively preparing for fresh large-scale military  exercises  near


   Ta Kung Pao said troops of the People's Liberation Army (PLA)  were

mobilised  during  the  Chinese  Lunar  New  Year holiday last week in

readiness for a large-scale exercise  in  the  Taiwan  Strait  between

mainland China and the island of Taiwan.

   The  Ta  Kung  Pao report follows recent statements from Taiwan and

the United States that a major PLA military exercise appeared imminent

near Taiwan, the third set of big exercises in half a year.

   The paper said the mobilisation had made air  traffic  restrictions

necessary  and  had  delayed  some  commercial  flights at Fuzhou city

airport, on the coast opposite Taiwan.

   It quoted people in Fuzhou as saying a military exercise would be a

warning  against  independence  moves  in  Taiwan  and  conducive   to


    China  has  regarded  Taiwan  as  a  renegade  province  since the

Nationalists took refuge  there  after  losing  a  civil  war  to  the

communists on the mainland in 1949.

   Both  sides  publicly  espouse  reunification although on different

terms.  But China has said it is convinced President Lee  Teng-hui  is

secretly working to make Taiwan a formally independent state.

   Lee,   the  front-runner  in  Taiwan's  first  direct  presidential

elections on March 23,  has criticised the mainland for trying to sway

the vote through its exercises.

   Tension  has  run  high since last June when Lee made an unofficial

U.S.  visit,  prompting Beijing to stage  military  exercises  and  to

threaten to retake the island by force.


                         Agence France Presse

                          February 22, 1996

          "Tanks rumbled through streets of Fujian province."

   Tanks  rumbled  through  the streets of China's Fujian province and

kilometers of military installations have spread along  its  coastline

facing  Taiwan,  according  to the Chinese-backed Wen Wei Po newspaper

here Thursday.

   Its account coincides with earlier reports that China was  planning

large-scale  military  exercises in Fujian and the Taiwan Strait ahead

of direct presidential elections in Taiwan scheduled for March 23. But

the paper did not confirm that such a drill was to take place.

   Wen Wei  Po  reported  that  civilian  airports  in  the  province,

including  that  of Fuzhou,  the provincial capital,  were closed from

time to time  to  allow  military  aircraft  to  take  off  and  land,

disrupting scheduled flights.

   The  paper  quoted  passengers  as saying that "for the sake of the

unity of the motherland" they had not complained about flight delays.

   The paper said "many unusual phenomenon" occurred in  the  province

before  the  Chinese lunar new year celebrations,  which began Monday.

"Military vehicles and tanks rumbled through the streets"  and  "along

the  shores,  there  were  tens  and  tens  of  kilometers of military


   Traditional visits by top party and  government  officials  to  the

People's  Liberation  Army  in  the province during the Lunar New Year

were suspended this year, the report said.

   But the newspaper said that despite the unsual events life went  on

as usual and there was no tension in the province.

   Another  Beijing-backed daily Ta Kung Pao in a report from Pingtan,

Fujian's  largest  island  in  the  Taiwan  strait,   said   Taiwanese

businessmen had spent the new year holiday there.

   This  contradicted  a report in the independent Sing Tao Daily News

on February 15 which said the ports of Pingtan,  Nanzhong and  Tung-ao

had  been closed and placed off limits for calls by fishing boats from


     Taiwan's Defence Minister Chiang Chung-ling said last  week  that

China was massing 150,000 troops in Fujian for the exercises which the

Taiwanese  see  as  aimed  at  intimidating  voters ahead of the first

direct presidential elections on the island scheduled for March 23.

   The exercises would be the third in a series  begun  shortly  after

Taiwan's  President  Lee  Teng-hui  visited the United States in June,

angering Beijing.

    China saw the trip as a covert  attempt  to  campaign  for  Taiwan

independence,  a  move  it  said  would  trigger  an  invasion  of the

nationalist island.

   Beijing has viewed Taiwan as a rebel province since the  end  of  a

civil war in 1949.


                  ***THE COMING EAST ASIAN CRISIS***

                              By J. Adams

                          February 13th, 1996

    A  more  comprehensive  article  will  be forthcoming,  but in the

meantime I thought I would post some  preliminary  conclusions  I have

reached from an examination of current affairs in China and East Asia.

    While  I  have  been regularly warning of how North Korea's large-

scale military build-up and exercises toward the South  are  likely  a

warning sign of an imminent invasion,  there is reason to believe that

this is but a secondary concern of a far larger crisis looming for all

of  East  Asia.  Specifically,  in  the  same  way  a  power  struggle

associated with a leadership transfer is being engineered in Pyongyang

to  cover  a North Korean invasion of South Korea,  the same  sort  of

political cover for military adventurism is likely being used by North

Korea's  massive  military ally-of-old:  China.  As is touched upon in

the articles  below,  the  West  is  receiving  signals,  most  likely

intentionally,  that  China's  leader  Deng Xiaoping is dead and party

leader and anointed heir,  Jiang Zemin,  is now seeking  to  establish

control.  As  part  of  gaining  control  of  the Red Giant,  Zemin is

supposedly seeking to win the backing of military hardliners who  want

to see a more aggressive China.  Consequently,  the stage might be set

for a major Chinese military action,  possibly against Taiwan,  in the

days or weeks ahead.  And this, in turn, might be a prelude to a North

Korean invasion of South Korea.

    All in all,  East Asia might soon explode.  Regardless of how all-

important such a crisis might seem,  however,  keep in mind that it is

all  most  likely  part  of  a  strategic diversion as explained in my

articles on the approaching global war.

    So  you can begin to see what I'm talking about,  I welcome you to

read the following set of articles:

                        Deutsche Presse-Agentur

                           February  7, 1996

      "Sabre-rattling turns Taiwan into Asia's new crisis region"

                          By Andreas Landwehr

    With  China  preparing  to  launch  massive  military exercises in

Fujian province opposite Taiwan on Saturday,  a new crisis region  has

suddenly emerged in Asia.

    At  a  stroke,  the  status quo in the Taiwan Straits,  with which

everyone  seemed  to  have  been  relatively  comfortable,  no  longer

applies.   Instead  every  one  is  suddenly  talking  about  military

manoeuvres, rocket attacks and invasion plans.

    The new atmosphere has a number of sources  within  China:  a  new

wave   of  nationalism,   threatening  gestures,   powerful  generals,

uncertainty over the succession after the death of senior leader  Deng

Xiaoping,   perhaps  even  distraction  from  the  country's  internal


    Fear of war has become an almost palpable phenomenon as the  Asian

rumour  mill  grind into action and sensationalist stories appear on a

daily basis as Hong Kong and Taiwanese newspapers  fight  to  maintain

their share of a tough market.

    "People are shaking at the knees," said a traveller returning from

Taiwan on Wednesday.

    Taiwanese  were  shocked  Wednesday  morning to hear a report that

China was planning to  begin  its  manouvres  on  Saturday,  with  the

intention  of  demonstrating  its ability to use force to win back the

island republic.

    The anxiety is as real as the threat is speculative. The U.S.  has

been  asked  whether  it  would  come  to  Taiwan's  aid.  But Defence

Secretary William Perry has not been to calm  the  Taiwanese  on  that


    Perry  has  not  offered Taiwan any security guarantees but simply

referred to the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979  stating  that  the  U.S.

considers "any effort to settle the status of Taiwan by force a threat

to peace in the Western Pacific area and of great concern".

    Perry said that during his visit to Beijing last November Pentagon

representative Joseph Nye was surprised to be asked how the U.S. would

react to a threat against Taiwan.

    His answer, according to Perry, was: "We do not know what we would

do,  because it's going to depend on the circumstances,  and you don't

know what we would do."

    Washington has described  the  ambiguity  of  Nye's  answer  as  a

"useful deterrent for either side".

    But to Chinese ears, it must sound more like a display of weakness

and deliberate reservation.  Amid the uncertainty,  however, one thing

is sure:  there is a lot at stake for China's military  and  political


    Not  least at risk is the country's current economic success.  Any

armed conflict would badly damage the  Chinese  economy  and  probably

destroy   the  future  of  Hong  Kong  as  a  financial  and  economic


    If the West believes the Chinese would not be  willing  to  gamble

away  such  prosperity,  concern  remains that Beijing will succeed in

influencing the Taiwanese presidential elections on March 23.

    By stirring up fears of war, China is clearly bringing pressure to

bear on Taiwanese not to vote for either President Lee  or  his  rival

Peng Ming-min.


                            Financial Times

                           January  31, 1996

                             "Old Clothes"

    There are so few public clues  to  the  thinking  of  the  Chinese

Communist  party  that the fashion statement carries as much weight as

the politburo communique.  In recent days,  Jiang Zemin,  party leader

and  anointed heir of Deng Xiaoping,  has been gracing public meetings

in an off-khaki Mao suit.  Both the colour and the cut of  Mr  Jiang's

outfit provide important hints about the shifting strength of factions

and the direction of policy.

    Khaki  is  a  concession  to  the People's Liberation Army,  whose

support is essential to the durability of a Chinese  leader.  And  the

high-collar is favoured by elderly conservatives, whose retro taste in

clothes  matches a political philosophy steeped in the past glories of

the Communist party.

    Strategic changes of clothes have marked  the  turn  of  political

trends over two decades of Chinese reform. In the cruelty and chaos of

the  Cultural  Revolution,  there was no choice.  The western suit was

evidence of decadence and an invitation to be purged.  What westerners

know as the Mao suit,  which Chinese call the zhongshanfu in honour of

an earlier revolutionary, Sun Yat-sen,  was standard issue for safety-

conscious  party leaders.  In the 1980s,  when confidence was growing,

leading reformers were willing to take the risk of  wearing  a  lounge

suit.  The  symbolism  was  obvious  to  all.  Outside  the leadership

compound,  Chinese began experiments with  loud  ties  and  wool-blend

fabrics. Hemlines now rise and fall with the tide of secular fashion.

    But  the  sartorial  struggle  goes on within the Communist party.

After  the  Tiananmen  tragedy  in  1989,   Mao-suited   conservatives

dominated.  At  the  onset  of  other  campaigns against 'evil winds',

'spiritual pollution' and 'bourgeois liberalisation',  reformers found

it  convenient  to  return  to  the wardrobe and prove their political

purity by stealing their opponents' clothes.

    Apart from the traditional tunic, Mr Jiang, by Chinese standards a

middle-of-the-roader,  has acquired the  rhetorical  accoutrements  of

conservatism.   Suddenly,  he  is  alarmed  by  'cultural  trash'  and

insistent that the  country  not  'sacrifice  ideology'  for  economic


    There  is  obviously conflict in the Communist party.  It could be

that  unreconstructed  conservatives  have  mustered  the  numbers  to

threaten  economic  policy.  It could be that Mr Deng is very close to

death and the succession brawl has begun.  China remains unpredictable

and, as the next emperor,  Mr Jiang has good reason to worry about his



                         Agence France Presse

                           January  31, 1996

                    "Deng missing from TV tributes"

   Chinese patriarch Deng Xiaoping was  surprisingly  missing  from  a

list  of  top  officials to pay tribute Wednesday after the death of a

veteran communist leader.

   The list was given prominence on the main  evening  news  when  the

announcement of the death of Lieutenant General Chen Xianhui was made.

Chen died in hospital on January 10 aged 83, the television said.

   President  Jiang  Zemin  and  nearly  every other member of the old

guard within the communist party was quoted  as  having  gone  to  pay

respects to Chen on his death bed or sent a message of condolences.

   The  91-year-old  Deng,  who has not been seen in public for almost

two years, would normally have been expected to be among them.

   Jiang was top of the list given,  followed by  Peng  Zhen,  93,  an

orthodox  ideologue  and the oldest of the so-called "immortals" known

as the founders of communist  China.  Deng  is  also  among  the  four

surviving immortals.

   Also  named were General Liu Huaqinq,  vice chairman of the central

military commission,  General Yang Baibin and his brother General Yang

Shangkun, 88, another party "immortal."

   Chinese  television also cited the names of party conservative Song

Ping and former national people's congress speaker Wan Li.

   Deng should have been on the list as he had  strongly  courted  the

former  political  commissar for the Beijing region,  before and after

the founding of communist China in 1949, analysts said.

   But Bo Yibo,  the 87-year-old fourth surviving "immortal," was  not

mentioned, observers said. Bo was never close to the army.

   Deng was last seen in public in February 1994 for what had become a

traditional television appearance for the Chinese New Year.  He seemed

then  to  be  in a frail state and there are frequent reports that the

authorities are about to announce Deng's death.

   Meanwhile,  Jiang has strengthened his hold over the state and army

and is seen as the likely new patriarch after Deng's eventual death.

    Beijing accuses Lee of attempting to win international recognition

for  Taiwan  while  Peng  clearly  backs  Taiwanese independence.  The

Chinese leadership wants to persuade voters in the island republic  to

vote  for  a  candidate  that would avoid any confrontation with their

powerful neighbour across the water.